Friday, February 02, 2018 2:19:17 AM
In a research report consultants, Wood Mackenzie said the combination of scheduled mine closures, top producer Glencore's strategic cuts and the impact of environmental inspections in China has depleted global stocks of concentrate.
According to the report global zinc stockpiles fell by a third in 2017 to 1.8 million tons, equivalent to 47 days of global usage. Exchange stocks halved from 500kt to 250kt (equivalent to just 6 days of global consumption) over the same period.
By the end of the second quarter, there will be less than 40 days’ of stock available for consumers; "a critically low level" according to the authors which should propel prices to $4,000 a tonne in the third quarter of this year.
Zinc price will vault $4,000 within months – report However, says Woodmac, zinc has the potential to rally even further:
"As the rapid escalation of the price thus far in 2018 has demonstrated, there is a strong possibility that investor
enthusiasm will pre-empt the tightness in the refined market and the cyclical peak in the price could be higher and sooner than
our base case assumption of a Q1 2019 average of $4,100/t."
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