Goldbugy,
I can only speak for myself and offer a few thoughts. I try not to do short term predictions because they are very hard to make. The Elena project is now completely under MarMar's control and I am taking that as a positive that implies that all the bugs in the plant are (mostly) worked out and that production is finally ready to move ahead in earnest. Once the metallurgical issues are resolved, MarMar can put their core competences to use and things will move ahead quickly. I believe they are at or very near this point and will post some results within the next couple months.
As for a timetable, shareholders are right to be concerned with delays. In a company like Mexus dilution is the #1 risk factor - and it is a long list in this industry. Every delay and error decreases the profit potential of long term shareholders as the OS rises. I pointed this out last year, that Mexus at 200M shares outstanding is a very different beast from one with 1 billion shares, even if the shares are tightly held. Market cap is king.
A better question I think is, "How much time is reasonable to give Mexus to produce a profit?"
Many of the readers of this board are familiar with a certain miner in Nevada that has world famous gold and silver claims. This miner explored, raised capital, did a bunch of tests and studies, raised more money, consolidated the district, drilled out a huge deposit, got permits and then built out a very nice little mining operation. This took many years and over $100 million dollars. Only problem was they lost money on every ounce produced and cratered the entire value of their company via dilution and their failure to execute. They had a plan to increase production and they did after raising more money to cover their loses. The result was more ounces produced at a loss. Even though they were on paper successful (permits, good geological reports, discovery and construction complete) and market cap had risen significantly, many long shareholders still lost money even as the company became more valuable. The discussions are kind of interesting and still going on today as far as I know. As a shareholder it is obvious - what is the value of 3 million ounces of gold that are produced at a loss? Zero- even though they spent millions to outline them. It might have a huge value at higher gold prices, but none as is. I gave this company ample time to correct, to mine higher grade sections and optimize their process. The longer this process took (beyond a reasonable tune up period), the more stock I gradually sold as the risk reward equation shifted and the likelihood of them being able to earn a single dollar disappeared. Soon they had diluted my original investment by about 20x, essentially stealing all hope of a profit. After bungling for 1-2-3 years (and this after doing all the expensive stuff necessary to ensure they operate at a profit from the get go) I was long gone and the stock had begun its inexorable decline. It is also interesting because that stock had a very similar "die hard" shareholder group that would ride it to zero, believing riches were coming the next day. Yet profits still matter. A lot.
So let's not do that with Mexus. Mexus has a superior deposit with relative efficiencies and is also different in the respect that because they didn't spend $200m on studies and tailor made equipment in advance and I am naturally giving them more time to optimize than I would otherwise. I am going to give them about 12-18 months more before I would consider exiting. I doubt I will have to wait that long though. I think two months is reasonable for them to show us something worthwhile. If we are still asking "How much longer for an Elena gold pour?" in 6 months then the stock will begin to decline and dilution rates will gradually increase. Either they will sort things out and turn a profit, or a downtrend will develop and continue. Once profits are achieved, the stock will probably rally in a very volatile, haphazard manner for 18-24 months and that is where you can usually take a good slice of optimal profit. As far as entries into a junior miner go - right now is about as good as it gets - if you believe they will be able to make money any time soon. I do. We will just have to wait and see and adjust our perceptions as things move on.
