NY Crude Oil Futures Summary Analysis By Marty Armstrong | January 21, 2018
Analysis for the Week of January 22, 2018
WRITTEN VIEW PER THE CLOSE OF Fri. Jan. 19, 2018: NY Crude Oil Futures closed today at 6331 and is trading up about 4.78% for the year from last year's closing of 6042. Thus far, we have been trading down for the past 3 days, while we have made a low at 6278 following the high established Tue. Jan. 16, 2018, this price action warns of at least a pause in trend if not a retest of key support. Only a close above 6374 would imply a retest of the previous high.
The last event was a low established during 2016.
A possible change in trend appears due come this month in NY Crude Oil Futures so be focused. Last month produced a high at 6051 and so far, we have exceeded last month's high. We now need to close above 6051 on a monthly basis to imply a further advance to the upside immediately for now. The projected resistance for this week stands at 6640 and we need to close above this level on a weekly basis to maintain any upward momentum.
At this time, the market has closed on the Yearly level up 131.9% from the strategic low established during 2016, which has been a 1 year rally as of last year.
Viewing the near-term level, the market has closed down 14% from the last cycle high established during 2017, which has been only a move from last year. Flipping to the long-term perspective, the market has closed on the Yearly level down 58.9% from the strategic high established during 2008, which has been a 9 year move.
Our Daily level momentum and trend indicators are both bearish reflecting resistance forming at 6197. Turning to the broader picture, our long-term trend and cyclical strength indicators are both bullish 6339
On the weekly level, the last important high was established the week of January 15th at 6489, which was up 30 weeks from the low made back during the week of June 19th. We have been generally trading up since that low, which has been asignificant move of 16% percent in a stark panic type advance. The broader perspective, this current rally into the week of January 15th has exceeded the previous high of 5905 made back during the week of November 20th. We have seen a rally so far from the last low at 4205 made the week of June 19th, and only a break of that low would signal a technical reversal of fortune. Otherwise, the market remains strong at this time. Right now, the market is above momentum on our weekly models hinting this is still bullish for now as well as trend, long-term trend, and cyclical strength. Looking at this from a wider perspective, this market has been trading up for the past 15 weeks overall.
Currently, this market remains in an uptrend posture on all our indicators looking at the weekly level. We see here the trend has been moving up for the past 30 weeks. The last weekly level low was 4205, which formed during the week of June 19th, and has now been broken in the recent decline. The last high on the weekly level was 6489, which was created during the week of January 15th, and has now been exceeded in the recent rally.
Critical support still underlies this market at 4897 and a break of that level on a monthly closing basis would warn of a decline ahead becomes possible. Nevertheless, the market is trading above last month's high showing some strength. On a broader perspective, this market remains in an uptrend posture on all our indicators looking at the monthly level. We see here the trend has been moving up for the past 22 months. The last monthly level low was 2605, which formed during February 2016. The last high on the monthly level was 6051, which was created during December 2017, and has now been exceeded in the recent rally.
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