...just watch on occasion...looking for more substantive fundamental news from FDA re: VLN. Without more light at the end of the tunnel simple movement on technicals and MJ hype is not enough for me.
IMHO...there have been too many easier $3-$10 (and even much less of a price point) options opportunities with companies that have "light" and well established, which have had 2x - 3x or even close to 10x option moves to the upside that would have been missed by being "stuck" here (look at CSCO...60 days back in Nov...bought 50 Feb 36C @ .75...will move out to March soon)
Market has been explosive, and therefore so has options market while at the same time "cheap" ITM options.
Have only one of those long term speculative hold now and don't need to be bogged down with another "lost" opportunity elsewhere, awaiting the Federal Bureaucracy. If this is your buy and hold...not critical, IMHO still not compelling due to regulatory news and BT/State Revenue political drama.
IMO, FDA VLN determination could be the beginning...to a solid up move, but could still be tempered by the smoking market direction and final FDA determination and promulgation..."heat" and "e-cig" vs "burn".
PM appears to have the "safest" solution (while at the same time keeping BT favorite brands and taste profiles vs. smoking XXII "doggie doo" (nancy pelosi term)...where there is no carcinogen ingestion, followed by e-cigs. VLN does not solve the "carcinogen-free" problem. Those ingesting smoke STILL are ingesting Carcinogens. BT will argue they will be taking in MORE to satisfy nicotine craving, while XXII will argue smokers can quit with it. (also an interesting dilemma for XXII investors...helping the "burn" market "go up in smoke"!)
If it looks like FDA is going to come out with two prong solution (inclusive of VLN for burn), I could see BT (with PM licensing its technology to other BT) and advocating "banning all 'burn' smoking"...and making VLN irrelevant.
