Innovation Pharmaceuticals Inc (IPIX)

[farrell90]

At what price would I cash in? Depends

The fact all of IPIX's FDA studies have been successful has significantly de-risked my investment

As a result of IPIX's undeniable successes, I no longer view my investment in IPIX as being speculation. I only need one IPIX drug to be approved for one indication to have a substantial profit and if all 3 drugs meet their full potential it will be a zip code changer.

I do not believe the whole company will be sold because there is not an adequate way to value Kevetrin at this time.

5 partnering possibilities are listed; the first 3 are most likely:

1 The smallest partnership/licensing agreement would be for Brilacidin for the Oral mucositis indication. My relatively uneducated guess it may result in a share price of $6-8.
2 A partnership/licensing of Brilacidin for the indications of OM and IBD, an agreement for both indications may result in a share price of $21-28 a share.
3. A partnership/licensing including the entire Brilacin, HDP and Prurisol platforms for all indications may be $40-50 if the stage 2b Prurisol data is good.
4. A large collaborative partnership for development and licensing for all the drugs and analogues.
5. An outright sale of all the assets. I would love a deal with 50% dividend paying shares and 50% cash. eg Pfzier or similar.
The above assumes proportional upfront money, reasonable royalties and mile stone agreements.

Once a partnership under the first 4 possibilities is announced the best move would be to buy because what follows is a move to a better exchange which will bring institutional buying.

The question is at what price will I be cashing in.

I would sell in a step wise manner depending on the assets remaining in IPIX. eg in example 1. I would sell about 50% #2 70%
# 3 85% # 4 50% # 5 I would sell 100% as soon as the deal was announced.

My ideal partnership and the best for IPIX long term shareholders would be; # 4 a long term collaboration with a large pharma company with the resources to fully develop IPIX's assets. An example of such a deal is the initial 2007 Regeneron and Sanofi deal.

http://investor.regeneron.com/secfiling.cfm?filingid=950123-07-16134&cik=

Good luck, Farrell {the next couple of months will be fun}

All of the above is most likely wrong and just reflects my assessment at this time; as such, no one should make investment decisions based on any of my posts.