THIS IS A PAUSE -- NOT A FULL STOP -- IN THE 2018 MJ MANIA
This administration's viewpoint on MJ -- currently driven by the Department of Justice and Jeff Sessions -- is laughably out of touch with American voters
We have an analogous setup here with New Jersey under Chris Christie, whose political position on medical and recreational marijuana was also comically diametrically opposed to the voting public
And now NJ is on track to legalize MJ under newly elected Governor Phil Murphy within the next few months, which many believe is 18-24 months earlier than would have transpired had New Jersey's previous Governor been more MJ-friendly.
So instead of legalizing recreational marijuana in 2020, NJ is slated to legalize in March/April/May of 2018
When leadership is out of touch with voters, the result is rebellion, upheaval and rapid change -- the status quo cannot hold
There are a few key differences between the NJ situation and what we are dealing with now under Sessions
Christie was the Governor in NJ, the head honcho 100% in charge of all MJ policy
Sessions is the Attorney General, not the President -- Trump doesn't seem to have a strong position on MJ one way or the other; instead, he seems ambivalent -- he is a chatterbox on issues in general but he never even mentions MJ.
Not only is Sessions not in charge of determining MJ policy, but the man who is can be swayed on the status quo
Christie was serving out his 2nd guaranteed term, with nothing to lose by maintaining his anti-MJ stance through the entirety of his tenure -- it's not like he could be removed from office simply because his political sensibility on MJ was such an abject failure
Sessions has no guarantees on the completion of his term as AG.
On the contrary, he has been under various threats of termination from several different angles.
Trump, because he recused himself from the Russia investigation...
Congressional Republicans, because of Trump's dissatisfaction, media leaks, courts continually rejecting the DOJ's new policies on immigration, chaotic disorganization of the DOJ, etc...
Democrats, because of lying under oath and his ass backwards policies...
Christie had historically horrible approval ratings of less than 20% stemming from issues that had nothing to do with MJ, namely Bridgegate and the associated charges of corruption.
This meant that the chances of a Republican Governor succeeding him were near zero, so there was no motivation to change his stance on MJ
In contrast, the 2018 midterm elections are rapidly approaching, and based on many current governors, senators and Congresspeople from a slew of states -- NY, CT, PA, IL, RI, MD, DE, FL, etc -- along with newly announced candidates for these respective positions -- the tide has conclusively turned on recreational MJ and it is going to be a crucial 2018 voting issue
Therefore, Republican governors, senators and house representatives have a lot to lose if they do not soften their stances on recreational MJ this year -- they will be voted out of office and the Democrats will wind up with control of both houses of Congress
Independent voters will be the determining factor in many elections this year and thanks to all of the recent and ongoing media attention, recreational MJ and states' rights to determine their own MJ laws is now a big enough issue to sway at least a few percentile of their votes, which is enough to determine the victor in many elections
The polls are very clear about how independents view MJ and preventing federal interference of MJ in all MJ-legal states, whether those states have legalized medical, recreational or both
Medical marijuana, recreational marijuana and states' rights to determine their own policies on both are not 50/50 issues.
The generic Congressional ballots across the nation currently are plus 8%-12% in favor of Democrats.
The only way for Republicans to maintain control of both Houses will be to sway the Independent voters
So if Trump wants to keep Republicans in charge of both houses and Republican Congresspeople want to be reelected, than all of them collectively must soften their stance on MJ, because the candidates that current senators and House Representatives are running against have postions on MJ that reflect the latest polls -- 60%-65% approval for Rec MJ, 80%-90% percent approval for Med MJ and 70% approval for states
The bottom line is that the further away an administration is from elections that can change the power dynamic of a Congress, the less politically correct they can be in their political positions.
But in the even election years, there is a strong tendency to let polling guide stances on issues, particularly in the very favorable current situation Republicans find themselves where they scored the rare trifecta with President, Senate, and House under their control
Politicians hold two different types of positions on issues -- ideological and "I wanna get elected"
There are also two different groups of politicians.
Those who are looking to hold onto their power and get re-elected and those seeking to be newly elected.
Both groups are subject to the same political forces and pressures that determine who will win
Whenever a politician's ideological stance matches up with the voting public, the politician's position on that issue never changes
However, when there is a difference between personal ideology and the voting public, there is an obvious and logical tendency for the politician's position to drift towards that of the voting public.
In election years like 2018, if there is a mismatch, the desire to win elections always causes a strong shifting away from ideological stances towards those which are more consistent with the voting public.
The desire to win elections and maintain their amazing jobs is the most dominant force on the political stances that politicians in power take in voting years
In those who seek to be newly elected, the desire to win necessitates that the political positions they carve out on issues closely matches that of their prospective voters
This dance between current governors, senators and house representatives, their opponents running for office, and the voting public is just starting to play out
The media's increased attention on recreational marijuana and states' rights to determine their own laws has now moved MJ from a peripheral to a more central issue in the 2018 elections
Though there is a certain complexity inherent in predicting the ultimate federal progress on marijuana that occurs in 2018, there is also a concomitant simplicity carved out by the brutally efficient logic that drives politician's stances in a directionally consistent manner to match those of the voting public
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Over the weekend, I am working on a new comprehensive writeup of the current political situation and its effects on both the MJ sector as a whole, as well as the Hemp and CBD subsectors
In addition, I will provide some new commentary on why VATE & SIPC being members of the Hemp and CBD subsectors continues to place them in position to handily outperform the rest of the MJ sector
Sleek
