I'm going to go out on a limb and predict that the clinical hold will be lifted on CX-717 on the first try (I figure a 80% chance or better). The next big question then will be whether or not a financing will occur between now and the completion of the BP deal. I'm figuring it's fairly likely, for several reasons -
1) A $8-10 mil cash level at year isn't near enough to allow Cortex to bargain with BPs from strength.
2) Dr. Stoll appears to be going the non-Ampakine in-licensing route, which will cost some money.
Of course if there's a considerable amount of warrant excercising after the clinical hold is lifted (or if the BP deal happens very quickly after the clinical hold is lifted), then a financing might be avoided. On the other hand, it might be foolish to not take advantage of the opportunity to grab some favorable cash with the stock at the $5 or better level - the standard "get the money when you can" biotech approach.
Looking at the potential downside scenarios -
1) FDA wants additional studies done for some less than dire reason, causing another 6 month delay. This isn't that likely, but you never know. This puts Cortex in an early '07 cash bind, with an unfavorable financing likely.
2) A seriously bad finding in the new studies, and CX-717 is toast. This is very unlikely, and we would have probably already heard something from Cortex.
I'm figuring the most likely scenario is - a) clinical hold is lifted by mid-October, b) a financing occurs not too long afterwards, c) the BP deal occurs by early '07, followed shortly by d) the announcement of a non-Ampakine in-licensing.
BTW, I wonder if Jim Haynes is still out there holding his gigantic position? Jimbo, what's up? :o)
