Bearing Lithium Corp fka BRGRF

[Dr_Vonschellan]

Hey Doc how you_really_feeling_about_this_one? Scenario_4A_&_4B
Funact1, This past week with SQM's impressive successes_ Spanish English the whole lithium dynamic in Chile is changed now. Motion sensors in Augusto Pinochet's casket have detected he has flipped right side up again and he is smiling once more. SQM is returning to its full-onslaught glory/power. We Legacy LIEG shareholders now need to begin preparing for the inevitable. It is my opinion that SQM will consume this entire JV in a friendly takeover which I predict being consummated in February 2019... if not short-circuited by the Chinese or the Russians coming off the upcoming Corfo Beauty Pageant letdown.

As we all know, there is a deliberate low-balling sandbagging effort currently underway to portray our JV as a mining entity made up of simpleton half-crippled retarded dopey freshman miners capable of producing only 20,000mt of LCE per year in which we would primarily be relying on antiquated 55% low-efficiency evaporation pond methods very similar to those worn-out processing techniques SQM is still using in Chile in their very-successful foot-dragging policy which helped in some measure to starve the Chilean Treasury over the last 4 years.

The reality from a technical point of view is that with our planned high-tech Veolia (or Posco) membrane concentrator machinery on site running full blast by 2020/2021 we will approach and re-target a 90% efficiency level and with the CapEx already being discussed we could easily hit 60,000mt of LCE per year with hardly breaking a sweat.

So the question today for us here is what will we be worth on February 1, 2019?
Current Low-Balling Sandbagger management will tell you one value and Reality-Believers (management/technicians/shareholders) will outline another more viable/do-able value to you.
Low-Balling Sandbagger management value based on 20,000mt/year:
Jan 2018 = $0.82pps_____________Feb 2019 = $1.75pps

Reality Believer management value based on 60,000mt/year:
Jan 2018 = $2.84pps_____________Feb 2019 = $6.05pps

The revised Scenario 4A (20,000mt) and Scenario 4B (60,000mt) Proforma studies follow:

Scenario 4A (20,000mt) per year.
Lithium Carbonate Equivalent = 2,150,000 Tonnes
Price Li2CO3 = $10,000 /Tonne
20-year life span of mine LOM = 20 Years
Life of mine Gross value = $21,500,000,000

Tonnes production 100% capability per year = 108,000 Tonnes
Tonnes production 55% w/Conversion per Yr = 59,400 Tonnes (old timey antiquated evaporation)
Tricky Dicky Fudge Packer factor (SUBTRACT)= 66.0% (This could go way way way down in our favor under President Pinera)

Tonnes LCE production capability per year = 20,000 Tonnes
KCL production, Nil first 3 years 0 Tonnes
Mine gross revenue per year = $200,000,000

Operating Expenses per Tonne itemized
Chemicals & reagents $925 /MT
Salt Removal $93 /MT
Energy $860 /MT
Manpower $353 /MT
Employee services $84 /MT
Maintenance $288 /MT
Transport & sales $207 /MT
G&A $129 /MT
Operating Expense per tonne $2,938 = ($58,760,000)

Capital Costs
1000 Brine Extraction Wells $25,637,000
2000 Evaporation Ponds $134,065,000
2500 Massive Soil Movement $6,246,000
3000 KCL Plant $23,396,000 Note: there will be NO Potash sales the first 3 years
5000 Salt Removal $29,928,000
6000 Lithium Carbonate Plant $77,396,000
8000 Genral Services $29,898,000 Includes 200 staff/workers
9000 Infrastructure $62,816,000
Total Direct Costs $389,382,000
Total Indirect Costs 14.2% $55,216,000
Contingency 18.6% $82,708,000
Total Capital Cost $527,305,000
Depreciate Capex of $527M over 20 years = ($26,365,000)
Revenue after expenses ST = $114,875,000
National Royalty (ref 1932 Chilean law) 3% = ($3,469,000)
Local royalties / community payment / Tax 7.5% = ($8,616,000) (page 9 of PEA)
EBITA = $102,790,000
(Ref MSB corporate tax rate is 27%)
Estimated Income 55% of EBITA 55% = $56,535,000

LPI income per year 50.0% = $28,268,000
MSB income per year 32.3% = $18,261,000
NA 0.0% = $0
BRZ income per year 10.3% = $5,823,000
BRGRF income per year 7.4% = $4,184,000
_______________ 100.0% ___ $56,536,000

NPV, Value of BRGRF at Cap Rate 7.0% = $60,000,000

Number of BRGRF shares = 16,000,000
Projected value of BRGRF share June 2021 = $3.75 PPS

Interest Rate = 5.0%
Nper. Number of months in study = 42
Minimum appreciation per month per share 1.91% = $0.071 /mon/share
BRGRF Future Value 2021 = $3.75 PPS
Type (payment at beginning) = 1
Value of BRGRF share January 2018 = $0.82 PPS

Value of BRGRF share February 2018 = $0.90 PPS
Value of BRGRF share March 2018 = $0.97 PPS
Value of BRGRF share April 2018 = $1.04 PPS
Value of BRGRF share May 2018 = $1.11 PPS
Value of BRGRF share June 2018 = $1.18 PPS
Value of BRGRF share July 2018 = $1.25 PPS
Value of BRGRF share August 2018 = $1.32 PPS
Value of BRGRF share September 2018 = $1.40 PPS
Value of BRGRF share October 2018 = $1.47 PPS
Value of BRGRF share November 2018 = $1.54 PPS
Value of BRGRF share December 2018 = $1.61 PPS
Value of BRGRF share January 2019 = $1.68 PPS
Value of BRGRF share February 2019 = $1.75 PPS

Scenario 4B (60,000mt) per year.
Lithium Carbonate Equivalent = 2,150,000 Tonnes
Price Li2CO3 = $10,000 /Tonne
20-year life span of mine LOM = 20 Years
Life of mine Gross value = $21,500,000,000

Tonnes production 100% capability per year = 108,000 Tonnes
Tonnes production 90% w/Conversion per Yr = 97,200 Tonnes using modern membrane concentrator process
Tricky Dicky Fudge Packer factor (SUBTRACT) = 38.0% (Fair estimate under President Pinera)
Tonnes LCE production capability per year = 60,000 Tonnes
KCL production, Nil first 3 years 0 Tonnes
Mine gross revenue per year = $600,000,000

Operating Expenses per Tonne itemized
Chemicals & reagents $925 /MT
Salt Removal $93 /MT
Energy $860 /MT
Manpower $353 /MT
Employee services $84 /MT
Maintenance $288 /MT
Transport & sales $207 /MT
G&A $129 /MT
Operating Expense per tonne $2,938 = ($176,280,000)

Capital Costs
1000 Brine Extraction Wells $25,637,000
2000 Evaporation Ponds $134,065,000
2500 Massive Soil Movement $6,246,000
3000 KCL Plant $23,396,000 Note: there will be NO Potash sales the first 3 years
5000 Salt Removal $29,928,000
6000 Lithium Carbonate Plant $77,396,000
8000 Genral Services $29,898,000 Includes 600 staff/workers
9000 Infrastructure $62,816,000
Total Direct Costs $389,382,000
Total Indirect Costs 14.2% $55,216,000
Contingency 18.6% $82,708,000
Total Capital Cost $527,305,000
Depreciate Capex of $527M over 20 years = ($26,365,000)
Revenue after expenses ST = $397,355,000
National Royalty (ref 1932 Chilean law) 3% = ($12,000,000)
Local royalties / community payment / Tax 7.5% = ($29,802,000) (page 9 of PEA)
EBITA = $355,553,000
(Ref MSB corporate tax rate is 27%)
Estimated Income 55% of EBITA 55% = $195,554,000

LPI income per year 50.0% = $97,777,000
MSB income per year 32.3% = $63,164,000
NA 0.0% = $0
BRZ income per year 10.3% = $20,142,000
BRGRF income per year 7.4% = $14,471,000
_______________ 100.0% ___ $195,554,000

NPV, Value of BRGRF at Cap Rate 7.0% = $207,000,000

Number of BRGRF shares = 16,000,000
Projected value of BRGRF share June 2021 = $12.94 PPS

Interest Rate = 5.0%
Nper. Number of months in study = 42
Minimum appreciation per month per share 1.91% = $0.246 /mon/share
BRGRF Future Value 2021 = $12.94 PPS
Type (payment at beginning) = 1
Value of BRGRF share January 2018 = $2.84 PPS

Value of BRGRF share February 2018 = $3.09 PPS
Value of BRGRF share March 2018 = $3.33 PPS
Value of BRGRF share April 2018 = $3.58 PPS
Value of BRGRF share May 2018 = $3.83 PPS
Value of BRGRF share June 2018 = $4.07 PPS
Value of BRGRF share July 2018 = $4.32 PPS
Value of BRGRF share August 2018 = $4.57 PPS
Value of BRGRF share September 2018 = $4.81 PPS
Value of BRGRF share October 2018 = $5.06 PPS
Value of BRGRF share November 2018 = $5.31 PPS
Value of BRGRF share December 2018 = $5.55 PPS
Value of BRGRF share January 2019 = $5.80 PPS
Value of BRGRF share February 2019 = $6.05 PPS Possible/probable Target Sell Date
Value of BRGRF share March 2019 = $6.29 PPS
Value of BRGRF share April 2019 = $6.54 PPS
Value of BRGRF share May 2019 = $6.79 PPS
Value of BRGRF share June 2019 = $7.03 PPS
Value of BRGRF share July 2019 = $7.28 PPS
Value of BRGRF share August 2019 = $7.52 PPS
Value of BRGRF share September 201 = $7.77 PPS
Value of BRGRF share October 2019 = $8.02 PPS
Value of BRGRF share November 2019 = $8.26 PPS
Value of BRGRF share December 2019 = $8.51 PPS
Value of BRGRF share January 2020 = $8.76 PPS
Value of BRGRF share February 2020 = $9.00 PPS
Value of BRGRF share March 2020 = $9.25 PPS
Value of BRGRF share April 2020 = $9.50 PPS
Value of BRGRF share May 2020 = $9.74 PPS
Value of BRGRF share June 2020 = $9.99 PPS
Value of BRGRF share July 2020 = $10.24 PPS
Value of BRGRF share August 2020 = $10.48 PPS
Value of BRGRF share September 2020 = $10.73 PPS
Value of BRGRF share October 2020 = $10.98 PPS
Value of BRGRF share November 2020 = $11.22 PPS
Value of BRGRF share December 2020 = $11.47 PPS
Value of BRGRF share January 2021 = $11.71 PPS
Value of BRGRF share February 2021 = $11.96 PPS
Value of BRGRF share March 2021 = $12.21 PPS
Value of BRGRF share April 2021 = $12.45 PPS
Value of BRGRF share May 2021 = $12.70 PPS
Value of BRGRF share June 2021 = $12.95 PPS

This is all based on LCE selling at $10,000/MT... but we all know that price is going to go higher, and so will these calculations accordingly.

Plus a real miner like SQM could have this project up and running in late 2019 as opposed to the low-balling sandbaggers who are saying/crying they can't get the mining operation going until 2021. A revised schedule that targets 2019 would bump all these values up again even higher.

The Doctor