Franklin, Andrews, Kramer & Edelstein

[scion]

What internet search data reveal about Donald Trump’s first year in office

Darrell M. WestWednesday, January 17, 2018
https://www.brookings.edu/research/what-internet-search-data-reveal-about-donald-trumps-first-year-in-office/

he past year has been full of ups and downs for President Donald Trump. His inaugural address launched an “America First” vision that claimed the country was beset by violence and poverty, and needed to “protect our borders from the ravages of other countries.” According to him, “protection will lead to great prosperity and strength.”[1]

In subsequent months, the president doubled down on this perspective with a flood of tweets, press conferences, rallies, and policy actions that raised negative sentiments among Democrats, women, minorities, and immigrants.[2] The year ended with GOP election losses in Alabama, Virginia, and New Jersey, and a Gallup public opinion survey showing the president with a 35 percent approval and 59 percent disapproval rating.[3] The former figure is far below the support of any other post-war president at the first-year point.

Policywise, though, President Trump ended the year with a notable victory. Congress enacted a $1.5 trillion tax cut and repealed the individual mandate of the Affordable Care Act, two long-term goals of the Republican party. Also taking into account the elevation of Neil Gorsuch to the U.S. Supreme Court, a host of deregulation executive orders, the dismantling of the Trans-Pacific Partnership trade agreement, and an exit from the Paris climate accord, Trump argued that he had an impactful first year.[4]

To date, much of the analysis of Trump’s initial service has emphasized traditional metrics such as polls, election results, and legislation. All of these are useful ways to analyze, but they ignore big data analytics based on digital tools and social media behavior. Due to their real-time character and the large number of data points, these techniques represent valuable means to examine contemporary behavior.

In this report, I inaugurate the first in a series of big data analyses that will chart long-term trends. In the same way that researchers track political, economic, and social activities, it is useful to deploy social media and event histories to identify patterns in internet search behavior regarding President Trump. Using this information, I find several important developments:

1. Public interest in Trump has plummeted over the course of 2017. After peaking during inauguration week, searches for him have dropped to 20 percent of the initial level as the public has soured on the chief executive.

2. There were variations in interest in economic, domestic, and foreign policy, depending on the time of year. Interest in health care peaked during the period of the summer when Congress attempted but failed to repeal Obamacare. There also were spikes in interest in North Korea, terrorism, taxes, and inequality as those topics were in the news.

3. There were significant differences across states and cities in public interest as various topics surfaced nationally. Variations based on geography reveal interesting things in terms of how different issues resonate in various parts of the country.

4. Impeachment interest has surged during Trump’s first year. In May and November, there were major spikes in public interest in that topic as Trump fired FBI Director James Comey in May and saw leading advisers face federal indictment in November.

THE VALUE OF BIG DATA

Big data provide a valuable perspective on political developments. Unlike public opinion surveys, they are based on a large number of observations. As an illustration, Google currently hosts at least 2 trillion searches per year around the world, up from 1.2 trillion in 2012.[5] That magnitude of activity gives search data a value that goes beyond conventional research methodologies based on a few hundred or a few thousand respondents.
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https://www.brookings.edu/research/what-internet-search-data-reveal-about-donald-trumps-first-year-in-office/