SiNtx Technologies Inc (SINT)

[boston745]

I couldn't begin to truly touch everything but i'll just touch on Spine & Dental as Hip/Knee will be cost savings play for Zimmer more so than revenue generation due to its current market share. Zimmer already owns 40% market share in hip/knee. Im not positive the size of position 1 company can have before it triggers anti-competitive measures from FTC; licensing revenue is Zimmer's best route in Hip/Knee for revenue. This is why its important that Zimmer utilize Amedica's current relationships for possible licensing.
This is FCF calculation not IPR&D. The total amount would be spread between the following 3 main categories:

IPR&D: Spine, Dental, Hip, Knee, Coating, porous, 3D, & 18 year patent comprise this section
Customer Relationships: Weigao, Dentsply, Kyocera, NGK, Morgan Advanced Ceramics
Goodwill: Zimmer's direct global sales goes here (Financial & Operational Synergy)

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Spine

Weigao gives us a good metric to go off of, 25,000 units growing to 50,000 minimum representing an average of 24% market share over the 6 years it takes to ramp to 50,000 units as China's spinal fusion market is expected to grow 18% a year.

If you take Weigao's numbers and multiply that over 4 major markets (US, EU, China, Japan), thats 100,000 units a year to start growing to 200,000 units by year 6.

If you take an average price per unit of say $2,000, that's $200 million a year growing to $400 million. Mind you, 25,000 units represents only 4% of current US market.

The math is: 200 + 280 + 280 + 320 + 360 + 400 = 1.560 * .85^6 = $588million. These are actually conservative numbers particularly for the US and not factoring CsC impact.

let me point out that by year 6 $400m only represents 5% of the global spine markets 8 billion dollar projection.

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Dental

I'll take a different approach with dental at projecting potential revenue and simply guess percentage of market:

First thing i did was take US, EU, & Asia Pacific dental implant markets and added them together. Dental implant consists of implant, the abutment, & crown. Assuming the implant & abutment are the most costly portions i assumed the following. 5% grow a year maxing out at 30% & 10% licensing revenue from Dentsply with 20% discount applied to account for possibility of greater time to market.

$62 million year 1 growing to $561m year 6 discounted = 535m

This represents only maximum of 10% of the global dental implant market share.

That's $1.123 Billion for just Spine & Dental

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Used these resources:

https://www.grandviewresearch.com/industry-analysis/dental-implants-market



http://www.scientistlive.com/content/spinal-fusion-market-value-china-grow-665m-2020

https://www.businesswire.com/news/home/20170825005553/en/Global-Spinal-Fusion-Market-2017-2022-Unfavorable-Reimbursement