The GraveYard Shift

[JD400]

Only Pretty Lonely Data

Good Afternoon Ladies and Gentlemen !

~Welcome To :

~*~Mining & Metals Du Jour~*~ Graveyard Shift~

MMgys

weekend edition

Got some pretty lonely data here fer ya

enJoy


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Jan 12/Gold breaks out as bankers engage in both gold/silver short covering; gold rises $11.65 to $1334.45/silver advances 20 cents up to $17.15/at the comex we experienced a huge 11,170 gold EFP transfers to London/silver comex experienced 1,316 EFP transfer contracts to London/In the uSA a big miss in retail sales/More swamp stories for today/
January 12, 2018 · by harveyorgan · in Uncategorized · Leave a comment




GOLD: $1334.45 UP $11.65

Silver: $17.15 UP 20 cents

Closing access prices:

Gold $1338.85

silver: $17.26

SHANGHAI GOLD FIX: FIRST FIX 10 15 PM EST (2:15 SHANGHAI LOCAL TIME)

SECOND FIX: 2:15 AM EST (6:15 SHANGHAI LOCAL TIME)

SHANGHAI FIRST GOLD FIX: $1333.53 DOLLARS PER OZ

NY PRICE OF GOLD AT EXACT SAME TIME: $1326.50

PREMIUM FIRST FIX: $7.03

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SECOND SHANGHAI GOLD FIX: $1340.21

NY GOLD PRICE AT THE EXACT SAME TIME: $1329.00

Premium of Shanghai 2nd fix/NY:$11.21

SHANGHAI REJECTS NY /LONDON PRICING OF GOLD

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LONDON FIRST GOLD FIX: 5:30 am est $1332.90

NY PRICING AT THE EXACT SAME TIME: $1331.10

LONDON SECOND GOLD FIX 10 AM: $1326.80

NY PRICING AT THE EXACT SAME TIME. $1327.00

For comex gold:

JANUARY/
NUMBER OF NOTICES FILED TODAY FOR JANUARY CONTRACT: 181 NOTICE(S) FOR 18100 OZ.

TOTAL NOTICES SO FAR: 437 FOR 43700 OZ (1.3592 TONNES),

For silver:

jANUARY
5 NOTICE(S) FILED TODAY FOR
25,000 OZ/

Total number of notices filed so far this month: 537 for 2,685,000 oz

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Bitcoin: BID $14,021/OFFER $14,141 UP $807 (morning)
Bitcoin: BID 13,837/OFFER $13,957 UP $624(CLOSING)

end

Let us have a look at the data for today

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In silver, the total open interest FELL BY A TINY 216 contracts from 196,660 FALLING TO 196,444 WITH YESTERDAY’S 6 CENT FALL IN SILVER PRICING. WE HAD MINIMAL COMEX LIQUIDATION BUT WITHOUT A DOUBT WE WITNESSED ANOTHER FAILED MAJOR BANK SHORT- COVERING OPERATION. NOT ONLY THAT , WE WERE AGAIN NOTIFIED THAT WE HAD ANOTHER GOOD SIZED NUMBER OF COMEX LONGS TRANSFERRING THEIR CONTRACTS TO LONDON THROUGH THE EFP ROUTE: A GOOD 1034 EFP’S FOR MARCH (BUTALSO STRANGELY 282 EFP CONTRACTS FOR THE FRONT FEBRUARY MONTH) AND THUS TOTAL ISSUANCE OF 1316 CONTRACTS. HOWEVER THE MOVEMENT ACROSS TO LONDON IS NOT AS SEVERE AS IN GOLD AS THERE SEEMS TO BE A MAJOR PLAYER TAKING ON THE BANKS AT THE COMEX. STILL, WITH THE TRANSFER OF 1316 CONTRACTS, WHAT THE CME IS STATING IS THAT THERE IS NO SILVER (OR GOLD) TO BE DELIVERED UPON AT THE COMEX AS THEY MUST EXPORT THEIR OBLIGATION TO LONDON. YESTERDAY WITNESSED EFP’S FOR SILVER ISSUED. ALSO KEEP IN MIND THAT THERE CAN BE A DELAY OF 24 HRS IN THE ISSUING OF EFP’S. I BELIEVE THAT WE MUST HAVE HAD SOME MAJOR BANKER SHORT COVERING AGAIN TODAY.

ACCUMULATION FOR EFP’S/SILVER/ STARTING FROM FIRST DAY NOTICE/FOR MONTH OF JANUARY:

23,761 CONTRACTS (FOR 10 TRADING DAYS TOTAL 23,761 CONTRACTS OR 118.805 MILLION OZ: AVERAGE PER DAY: 2376 CONTRACTS OR 11.880 MILLION OZ/DAY)



TO GIVE YOU AN IDEA AS TO THE HUGE SUPPLY THIS MONTH IN SILVER: SO FAR 118.805 MILLION PAPER OZ HAVE MORPHED OVER TO LONDON. THIS REPRESENTS AROUND 16.8% OF ANNUAL GLOBAL PRODUCTION SO FAR THIS MONTH.

RESULT: A TINY SIZED LOSS IN OI COMEX WITH THE TINY 6 CENT FALL IN SILVER PRICE WHICH USUALLY INDICATES ANOTHER FAILED BANKER SHORT-COVERING. WE ALSO HAD A FAIR SIZED EFP ISSUANCE OF 1316 CONTRACTS WHICH EXITED OUT OF THE SILVER COMEX AND TRANSFERRED THEIR OI TO LONDON AS FORWARDS. FROM THE CME DATA 1316 EFP’S WERE ISSUED FOR TODAY (FOR MARCH EFP’S, THEY ISSUED 1034 CONTRACTS AND A STRANGE 282 EFP CONTRACTS FOR THE FRONT FEB CONTRACT MONTH) FOR A DELIVERABLE FORWARD CONTRACT OVER IN LONDON WITH A FIAT BONUS. WE REALLY GAINED 1100 OI CONTRACTS i.e. 1316 open interest contracts headed for London (EFP’s) TOGETHER WITH A DECREASE OF 216 OI COMEX CONTRACTS. AND ALL OF THIS HAPPENED WITH THE TINY FALL IN PRICE OF SILVER OF 6 CENTS AND A CLOSING PRICE OF $16.95 WITH RESPECT TO YESTERDAY’S TRADING. YET WE STILL HAVE A GOOD AMOUNT OF SILVER STANDING AT THE COMEX.

In ounces AT THE COMEX, the OI is still represented by just UNDER 1 BILLION oz i.e. 0.9820 BILLION TO BE EXACT or 140% of annual global silver production (ex Russia & ex China).

FOR THE NEW FRONT JANUARY MONTH/ THEY FILED: 5 NOTICE(S) FOR 25000 OZ OF SILVER

In gold, the open interest FELL BY 3379 CONTRACTS DOWN TO 564,056 DESPITE THE RISE IN PRICE OF GOLD WITH YESTERDAY’S TRADING ($4.15). IT LOOKS LIKE OUR BANKERS STARTED TO COVER THEIR GOLD SHORTS IN A SIMILAR FASHION TO WHAT WE ARE WITNESSING IN SILVER. IN ANOTHER HUGE DEVELOPMENT, WE RECEIVED THE TOTAL NUMBER OF GOLD EFP’S ISSUED YESTERDAY FOR TODAY AND IT TOTALED A GOOD SIZED 11,170 CONTRACTS OF WHICH THE MONTH OF FEBRUARY SAW 8533 CONTRACTS , APRIL SAW THE ISSUANCE OF 2537 CONTRACTS WITH DECEMBER ADDING ANOTHER 100 CONTRACTS. The new OI for the gold complex rests at 565,497. DEMAND FOR GOLD INTENSIFIES GREATLY AS WE CONTINUE TO WITNESS A HUGE NUMBER OF EFP TRANSFERS TOGETHER WITH THE MASSIVE INCREASE IN GOLD COMEX OI TOGETHER WITH THE TOTAL AMOUNT OF GOLD OUNCES STANDING FOR JANUARY. EVEN THOUGH THE BANKERS ISSUED THESE MONSTROUS EFPS, THE OBLIGATION STILL RESTS WITH THE BANKERS TO SUPPLY METAL BUT IT TRANSFERS THE RISK TO A LONDON BANKER OBLIGATION AND NOT A NEW YORK COMEX OBLIGATION. LONGS RECEIVE A FIAT BONUS TOGETHER WITH A LONG LONDON FORWARD. THUS, BY THESE ACTIONS, THE BANKERS AT THE COMEX HAVE JUST STATED THAT THEY HAVE NO APPRECIABLE METAL!! THIS IS A MASSIVE FRAUD: THEY CANNOT SUPPLY ANY METAL TO OUR COMEX LONGS BUT THEY ARE QUITE WILLING TO SUPPLY MASSIVE NON BACKED GOLD (AND SILVER) PAPER KNOWING THAT THEY HAVE NO METAL TO SATISFY OUR LONGS. LONDON IS NOW SEVERELY BACKWARD IN BOTH GOLD AND SILVER (BIG RISE IN BOTH GOFO AND SIFO) AND WE ARE WITNESSING DELAYS IN ACTUAL DELIVERIES. IN ESSENCE WE HAVE ANOTHER GOOD GAIN OF 7791 OI CONTRACTS: 3379 OI CONTRACTS DECREASED AT THE COMEX AND A GOOD SIZED 11,170 OI CONTRACTS WHICH NAVIGATED OVER TO LONDON.

YESTERDAY, WE HAD 7571 EFP’S ISSUED.

ACCUMULATION OF EFP’S/ GOLD(EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICAL) FOR THE MONTH OF JANUARY STARTING WITH FIRST DAY NOTICE: 91,602 CONTRACTS OR 9.1602 MILLION OZ OR 284.91 TONNES (10 TRADING DAYS AND THUS AVERAGING: 9,160 EFP CONTRACTS PER TRADING DAY OR 916,020 OZ/DAY)

TO GIVE YOU AN IDEA AS TO THE HUGE SIZE OF THESE EFP TRANSFERS : SO FAR THIS MONTH IN 10 TRADING DAYS: IN TONNES: 284 TONNES

TOTAL ANNUAL GOLD PRODUCTION, 2017, THROUGHOUT THE WORLD EX CHINA EX RUSSIA: 2200 TONNES

THUS EFP TRANSFERS REPRESENTS 284/2200 TONNES = 12.90% OF GLOBAL ANNUAL PRODUCTION SO FAR IN JANUARY ALONE.







Result: A CONSIDERABLE SIZED DECREASE IN OI AT THE COMEX DESPITE THE RISE IN PRICE IN GOLD TRADING ON YESTERDAY ($4.15). WE HAD ANOTHER FAIR SIZED NUMBER OF COMEX LONG TRANSFERRING TO LONDON THROUGH THE EFP ROUTE: 11,170. THERE OBVIOUSLY DOES NOT SEEM TO BE MUCH PHYSICAL GOLD AT THE COMEX AND YET WE ALSO OBSERVED A HUGE DELIVERY MONTH FOR THE MONTH OF DECEMBER. I GUESS IT EXPLAINS THE HUGE ISSUANCE OF EFP’S…THERE IS HARDLY ANY GOLD PRESENT AT THE GOLD COMEX FOR DELIVERY PURPOSES. IF YOU TAKE INTO ACCOUNT THE 11,170 EFP CONTRACTS ISSUED, WE HAD A NET GAIN IN OPEN INTEREST OF 7,791 contracts:

11140 CONTRACTS MOVE TO LONDON AND 3379 CONTRACTS DECREASED AT THE COMEX. (in tonnes, the gain in total oi equates to 24.23 TONNES)

we had: 181 notice(s) filed upon for 18100 oz of gold.

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With respect to our two criminal funds, the GLD and the SLV:

GLD

With gold up again today, we had no changes in inventory from the GLD:

Inventory rests tonight: 828.96 tonnes.

SLV/

NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV/

INVENTORY RESTS AT 316.348 MILLION OZ/

end

First, here is an outline of what will be discussed tonight:

1. Today, we had the open interest in silver FELL BY A TINY 216 contracts from 196,660 DOWN TO 196,444 (AND now A LITTLE FURTHER FROM THE NEW COMEX RECORD SET ON FRIDAY/APRIL 21/2017 AT 234,787) DESPITE THE FALL IN PRICE OF SILVER TO THE TUNE OF 6 CENTS WITH YESTERDAY’S TRADING. WE HAD WITHOUT A DOUBT ANOTHER FAILED SHORT COVERING FROM OUR BANKERS AS THEY HAVE CAPITULATED.HOWEVER THIS TIME THEY WERE JOINED BY GOLD. NOT ONLY THAT BUT OUR BANKERS USED THEIR EMERGENCY PROCEDURE TO ISSUE ANOTHER 834 PRIVATE EFP’S FOR MARCH (WE DO NOT GET A LOOK AT THESE CONTRACTS AS IT IS PRIVATE BUT THE CFTC DOES AUDIT THEM) AND 200 EFP’S FOR THE FRONT FEBRUARY MONTH AS SOMEBODY WAS IN URGENT NEED OF SILVER METAL. EFP’S GIVE OUR COMEX LONGS A FIAT BONUS PLUS A DELIVERABLE PRODUCT OVER IN LONDON. WE HAD NO COMEX SILVER COMEX LIQUIDATION. BUT, IF WE TAKE THE OI LOSS AT THE COMEX OF 216 CONTRACTS TO THE 1316 OI TRANSFERRED TO LONDON THROUGH EFP’S WE OBTAIN A GAIN OF 1100 OPEN INTEREST CONTRACTS IN CONJUNCTION WITH ANOTHER FAILED BANKER SHORT COVERING. WE STILL HAVE A GOOD AMOUNT OF SILVER OUNCES THAT ARE STANDING FOR METAL IN JANUARY (SEE BELOW). THE NET GAIN TODAY IN OZ: 6.05 MILLION OZ!!!

RESULT: A SMALL SIZED DECREASE IN SILVER OI AT THE COMEX WITH THE TINY FALL OF 6 CENTS IN PRICE (WITH RESPECT TO YESTERDAY’S TRADING). BUT WE ALSO HAD ANOTHER 1316 EFP’S ISSUED TRANSFERRING COMEX LONGS OVER TO LONDON. TOGETHER WITH THE GOOD SIZED AMOUNT OF SILVER OUNCES STANDING FOR JANUARY, DEMAND FOR PHYSICAL SILVER INTENSIFIES AS WE WITNESS MAJOR BANK SHORT COVERING ACCOMPANIED BY INCREASES IN GOFO AND SIFO RATES INDICATING SCARCITY.

(report Harvey)

.

2.a) The Shanghai and London gold fix report

(Harvey)

2 b) Gold/silver trading overnight Europe, Goldcore

(Mark O’Byrne/zerohedge

and in NY: Bloomberg
3. ASIAN AFFAIRS

i)Late WEDNESDAY night/THURSDAY morning: Shanghai closed UP 3.51 points or 0.10% /Hang Sang CLOSED UP 46.67 pts or 0.15% / The Nikkei closed DOWN 77.77 POINTS OR 0.33%/Australia’s all ordinaires CLOSED DOWN 0.48%/Chinese yuan (ONSHORE) closed DOWN at 6.5080/Oil UP to 63.97 dollars per barrel for WTI and 69.42 for Brent. Stocks in Europe OPENED MOSTLY MIXED LEANING TO RED. ONSHORE YUAN CLOSED DOWN AGAINST THE DOLLAR AT 6.5080. OFFSHORE YUAN CLOSED DOWN AGAINST THE ONSHORE YUAN AT 6.5130 //ONSHORE YUAN WEAKER AGAINST THE DOLLAR/OFF SHORE STRONGER TO THE DOLLAR/. THE DOLLAR (INDEX) IS STRONGER AGAINST ALL MAJOR CURRENCIES. CHINA IS STILL HAPPY TODAY.(GOOD MARKETS )

i
3a)THAILAND/SOUTH KOREA/NORTH KOREA

i)/South Korea


b) REPORT ON JAPAN
3 c CHINA


4. EUROPEAN AFFAIRS

i)GREECE

Greece is still in a mess as unpaid taxes make up a huge 55% of the country’s GDP. Greek tax authorities have seized pensions, salaries and assets of more than 180,000 taxpayers in 2017. Greek banks also have a huge amount of non performing loans on their books and they are seeking a 90% haircut on those loans.

To show you how bad it is in Greece, the citizens there are going on strike to be allowed to strike

( zero hedge)

ii)The Euro rises on a “grand coalition” deal in Germany
( zerohedge)

iii)TRUMP cancels his visit to London where he was suppose to open the new uSA embassy in southwest London. According to Trump, the Obama administration sold the old embassy for “peanuts” and moved the new embassy to the outskirts of London. He states:“Bad deal. Wanted me to cut ribbon-NO!”

( zerohedge)
5. RUSSIAN AND MIDDLE EASTERN AFFAIRS
6 .GLOBAL ISSUES


7. OIL ISSUES

i)Peter’s assessment on the price of oil is that 60 dollars will not last long. He believe equilibrium will be around 45$ WTI



( Peter Tertzakian/OilPrice.com)

ii)The rise in oil prices certainly had an effect on the huge surge in rig counts.

( zerohedge)


8. EMERGING MARKET
9. PHYSICAL MARKETS
i)Russia releases photos of its 1800 tonnes of gold stored in Moscow. No doubt we will probably see China doing the same and as well update the true number of oz stored in Beijing

( SilverDoctors)

ii)South Korea officially is planning to ban cryptocurrency trading which sent bitcoin initially plummeting and it threw all virtual coin markets into turmoil.
( Reuters)

iii)Goldman Sachs people know the truth, cryptocurrencies will go to their intrinsic value and that value is zeorh

( Goldman Sachs/Katz/Bloomberg/GATA)
10. USA stories which will influence the price of gold/silver

i)This is big news: the two yr USA treasury spikes to over 2.% and the 10 yr is back to 2.59%

( zerohedge)

ii)This is surprising:

Retail sales a big miss/with retail sales growth of only .3% month /month. The month before showed a strong 1.4% growth month/month.

( zerohedge)
iii)This is not good: Wells Fargo just reported the worst mortgage application number since the financial crisis. It is also noteworthy that USA citizens cannot obtain mortgages with interest rates as low as 1% A rise to 2 to 3% will wipe out the domestic housing sector.
( zerohedge)

iv)Because of tax cuts and bond run offs, Goldman Sachs warns that Treasury issuance will double this year and next to over 1 trillion dollars
here is why..
(courtesy zerohedge)

v)SWAMP STORIES

Trump denies the “shithole” comment. However it seems that the DACA agreement just fell apart
( zerohedge)
Let us head over to the comex:

The total gold comex open interest FELL BY CONSIDERABLE 3379 CONTRACTS DOWN to an OI level of 564,056 DESPITE THE RISE IN THE PRICE OF GOLD ($4.15 GAIN WITH RESPECT TO YESTERDAY’S TRADING). WE HAD SOME COMEX GOLD LIQUIDATION AND NO DOUBT WE WITNESSED SOME GOLD SHORT COVERING AT THE COMEX. WE ALSO WITNESSED ANOTHER HUMONGOUS COMEX TRANSFER THROUGH THE EFP ROUTE. THESE LONGS RECEIVED A DELIVERABLE LONDON FORWARD TOGETHER WITH A FIAT BONUS. THE CME REPORTS THAT 8533 EFP’S WERE ISSUED FOR FEBRUARY , 2537 EFP’s FOR APRIL, AND 100 FOR DECEMBER: TOTAL 11,170 CONTRACTS. THE OBLIGATION STILL RESTS WITH THE BANKERS ON THESE TRANSFERS.

ON A NET BASIS IN OPEN INTEREST WE GAINED TODAY: 7791 OI CONTRACTS IN THAT 11,170 LONGS WERE TRANSFERRED AS FORWARDS TO LONDON AND WE LOST 3379 COMEX CONTRACTS. NET GAIN: 7791 contracts OR 779,100 OZ OR 24.23 TONNES

Result: A CONSIDERABLE DECREASE IN COMEX OPEN INTEREST DESPITE THE RISE IN THE PRICE YESTERDAY’S GOLD TRADING ($4.15.) WE HAD SOME GOLD LIQUIDATION AT THE COMEX. HOWEVER WE, NO DOUBT HAD BANKER SHORT COVERING AS THEY ANTICIPATED GOLD’S ADVANCE ON FRIDAY.. TOTAL OPEN INTEREST GAIN ON THE TWO EXCHANGES: 7791 OI CONTRACTS…

We have now entered the active contract month of JANUARY. The open interest for the front month of JANUARY saw it’s open interest RISE by 3 contracts UP to 220. We had 0 notice served upon yesterday so we GAINED 3 contracts or 300 additional oz of gold will stand in this non active month AND QUEUE JUMPING RETURNS.

FEBRUARY saw a LOSS of 9166 contacts DOWN to 331,752. March saw a gain of 134 contracts up to 701. April saw a GAIN of 5896 contracts UP to 127,850.

We had 181 notice(s) filed upon today for 18100 oz
PRELIMINARY VOLUME TODAY ESTIMATED; 389,538
FINAL NUMBERS CONFIRMED FOR YESTERDAY: 297,666

comex gold volumes are RISING AGAIN

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And now for the wild silver comex results.

Total silver OI FELL BY A TINY 216 CONTRACTS FROM 196,660 UP TO 196,444 WITH YESTERDAY’S TINY 6 CENT FALL. AGAIN WE MUST HAVE HAD SOME FAILED BANKER SHORT COVERING. HOWEVER THIS TIME SILVER SHORT COVERING WAS JOINED BY GOLD SHORT COVERING. NOT ONLY THAT, WE HAD ANOTHER GOOD SIZED 1034 EMERGENCY EFP’S FOR MARCH ISSUED BY OUR BANKERS (AND A STRANGE 282 CONTRACTS FOR THE FRONT MONTH OF FEBRUARY ) TO COMEX LONGS WHO RECEIVED A FIAT BONUS PLUS A DELIVERABLE PRODUCT OVER IN LONDON: THE TOTAL EFP’S ISSUED: 1316. IT SURE LOOKS LIKE THE SILVER BOYS HAVE STARTED TO MIGRATE TO LONDON FROM THE START OF DELIVERY MONTH AND CONTINUING RIGHT THROUGH UNTIL FIRST DAY NOTICE JUST LIKE WE ARE WITNESSING TODAY. USUALLY WE NOTED THAT CONTRACTION IN OI OCCURRED ONLY DURING THE LAST WEEK OF AN UPCOMING ACTIVE DELIVERY MONTH. THIS PROCESS HAS JUST BEGUN IN EARNEST IN SILVER STARTING IN SEPTEMBER. HOWEVER, IN GOLD, WE HAVE BEEN WITNESSING THIS FOR THE PAST 2 YEARS. WE HAD MINIMAL LONG COMEX SILVER LIQUIDATION BUT A RISE IN TOTAL SILVER OI AS IT SEEMS THAT WE ARE WITNESSING SOME MAJOR FAILED BANKER SHORT-COVERING. WE ARE ALSO WITNESSING A FAIR AMOUNT OF SILVER OUNCES STANDING FOR COMEX METAL IN THIS NON ACTIVE JANUARY AS WELL AS THAT CONTINUAL MIGRATION OF EFPS OVER TO LONDON. ON A PERCENTAGE BASIS THERE ARE MORE EFP’S ISSUED FOR GOLD THAN SILVER AS IT SEEMS THAT A MAJOR PLAYER WISHES TO TAKE ON THE CROOKED COMEX SHORTS. ON A NET BASIS WE GAINED 1100 OPEN INTEREST CONTRACTS:

216 CONTRACT LOSS AT THE COMEX COMBINING WITH THE ADDITION OF 1316 OI CONTRACTS NAVIGATING OVER TO LONDON.

NET GAIN: 1100 CONTRACTS

We are now in the poor non active delivery month of January and here the OI GAINED 28 contracts RISING TO 71. We had 0 notices served upon yesterday, so we GAINED 28 contracts or an additional 140,000 oz will stand for delivery AT THE COMEX AT QUEUE JUMPING INTENSIFIES

February saw a GAIN OF 200 OI contracts RISING TO 1381. The March contract LOST 2429 contracts DOWN to 145,364.

We had 181 notice(s) filed for NIL 18100 for the January 2018 contract for silver
INITIAL standings for JANUARY

Jan 12/2018.
Gold Ounces
Withdrawals from Dealers Inventory in oz nil oz
Withdrawals from Customer Inventory in oz
2850.948 oz
Delaware
Deposits to the Dealer Inventory in oz 18,148.55 oz

brinks
Deposits to the Customer Inventory, in oz
6226.698 oz
JPMorgan
No of oz served (contracts) today
181 notice(s)
18100 OZ
No of oz to be served (notices)
39 contracts
(3900 oz)
Total monthly oz gold served (contracts) so far this month
437 notices
43700 oz
1.3592 tonnes
Total accumulative withdrawals of gold from the Dealers inventory this month NIL oz
Total accumulative withdrawal of gold from the Customer inventory this month xxx oz
we had zero kilobar transaction/
We had 1 inventory movement at the dealer accounts
i) Into Brinks: 18,148.55 oz
total inventory movement into the dealer accounts: 18,148.55 oz
we had one withdrawal into the customer account:
Out of Delaware: 2850.948 oz
total withdrawal: 2050.948 oz
we had 1 customer deposit
i) Into jPMorgan: 6,226.698 oz
total deposits: 6,226.698 oz
we had 0 adjustments
total registered or dealer gold: 586,601.473 oz or 18.245 tonnes
total registered and eligible (customer) gold; 9,228,969.526 oz 287.05 tones

For JANUARY:
Today, 0 notice(s) were issued from JPMorgan dealer account and 0 notices were issued from their client or customer account. The total of all issuance by all participants equates to 181 contract(s) of which 127 notices were stopped (received) by j.P. Morgan dealer and 26 notice(s) was (were) stopped/ Received) by j.P.Morgan customer account.

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To calculate the INITIAL total number of gold ounces standing for the JANUARY. contract month, we take the total number of notices filed so far for the month (437) x 100 oz or 43700 oz, to which we add the difference between the open interest for the front month of JAN. (220 contracts) minus the number of notices served upon today (181 x 100 oz per contract) equals 47,600 oz, the number of ounces standing in this active month of JANUARY

Thus the INITIAL standings for gold for the JANUARY contract month:

No of notices served (437 x 100 oz or ounces + {(220)OI for the front month minus the number of notices served upon today (181 x 100 oz which equals 47,600 oz standing in this active delivery month of JANUARY (1.4805 tonnes). THERE IS 18.245 TONNES OF REGISTERED GOLD AVAILABLE FOR DELIVERY SO FAR.

WE GAINED 36 CONTRACTS OR AN ADDITIONAL 3600 OZ WILL STAND IN THIS NON ACTIVE DELIVERY MONTH OF JANUARY

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ON FIRST DAY NOTICE FOR JANUARY 2017, THE INITIAL GOLD STANDING: 3.904 TONNES STANDING

BY THE END OF THE MONTH: FINAL: 3.555 TONNES STOOD FOR COMEX DELIVERY AS THE REMAINDER HAD TRANSFERRED OVER TO LONDON FORWARDS.

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I have a sneaky feeling that these withdrawals of gold in kilobars are being used in the hypothecating process and are being used in the raiding of gold!
The gold comex is an absolute fraud. The use of kilobars and exact weights makes the data totally absurd and fraudulent! To me, the only thing that makes sense is the fact that “kilobars: are entries of hypothecated gold sent to other jurisdictions so that they will not be short with their underwritten derivatives in that jurisdiction. This would be similar to the rehypothecated gold used by Jon Corzine at MF Global.

IN THE LAST 14 MONTHS 68 NET TONNES HAS LEFT THE COMEX.

end
And now for silver
AND NOW THE DECEMBER DELIVERY MONTH
DECEMBER FINAL standings
Jan 12 2018
Silver Ounces
Withdrawals from Dealers Inventory nil oz
Withdrawals from Customer Inventory
225,996.175 oz
Brinks
HSBC
CNT
Delaware
Scotia
Deposits to the Dealer Inventory
nil
oz
Deposits to the Customer Inventory
709,175.655 oz
CNT
HSBC
No of oz served today (contracts)
5
CONTRACT(S)
(25,000 OZ)
No of oz to be served (notices)
66 contract
(330,000 oz)
Total monthly oz silver served (contracts) 542 contracts

(2,710,000 oz)
Total accumulative withdrawal of silver from the Dealers inventory this month NIL oz
Total accumulative withdrawal of silver from the Customer inventory this month

we had no inventory movement at the dealer side of things

total inventory movement dealer: nil oz

we had two inventory deposits into the customer account

i) Into CNT: 600,310.900 oz

ii) Into HSBC: 108,864.755 oz

total inventory deposits: 709,175.655 oz

we had 5 withdrawals from the customer account;

i) out of Brinks; 16,234.570 oz

ii) Out of HSBC: ; 5171.400 oz

iii) Out of CNT: 40,050.09 oz

iv) Out of Delaware: 89,698.785 oz

v) Out of Scotia: 80,841.330 oz

total withdrawals; 225,996.175oz

we had 0 adjustments



total dealer silver: 45.456 million

total dealer + customer silver: 246.515 million oz

The total number of notices filed today for the JANUARY. contract month is represented by 5 contract(s) FOR 25,000 oz. To calculate the number of silver ounces that will stand for delivery in JANUARY., we take the total number of notices filed for the month so far at 542 x 5,000 oz = 2,710,000 oz to which we add the difference between the open interest for the front month of JAN. (71) and the number of notices served upon today (5 x 5000 oz) equals the number of ounces standing.

.

Thus the INITIAL standings for silver for the JANUARY contract month: 542(notices served so far)x 5000 oz + OI for front month of JANUARY(71) -number of notices served upon today (5)x 5000 oz equals 3,040,000 oz of silver standing for the JANUARY contract month. This is VERY GOOD for this NONACTIVE delivery month of JANUARY. WE GAINED 28 CONTRACTS OR AN ADDITIONAL 140,000 OZ WILL STAND FOR DELIVERY IN THIS NON ACTIVE DELIVERY MONTH OF JANUARY AND QUEUE JUMPING INTENSIFIES.

ON FIRST DAY NOTICE FOR THE JANUARY 2017 CONTRACT WE HAD 3,790 MILLION OZ STAND.

THE FINAL STANDING: 3,730 MILLION OZ

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ESTIMATED VOLUME FOR TODAY: not provided yet

CONFIRMED VOLUME FOR FRIDAY: not provided yet CONTRACTS

YESTERDAY’S CONFIRMED VOLUME OF xxxxx CONTRACTS EQUATES TOxxxxxx MILLION OZ OR xxx% OF ANNUAL GLOBAL PRODUCTION OF SILVER

COMMODITY LAW SUGGESTS THAT OPEN INTEREST SHOULD NOT BE MORE THAN 3% OF ANNUAL GLOBAL PRODUCTION. THE CROOKS ARE SUPPLYING MASSIVE PAPER TRYING TO KEEP SILVER IN CHECK.



The record level of silver open interest is 234,787 contracts set on April 21./2017 with the price at that day at $18.42
The previous record was 224,540 contracts with the price at that time of $20.44





end





NPV for Sprott and Central Fund of Canada

1. Central Fund of Canada: traded at Negative 1.5 percent to NAV usa funds and Negative 1.7% to NAV for Cdn funds!!!!
Percentage of fund in gold 63.0%
Percentage of fund in silver:36.8%
cash .+.2%( Jan 12/2018)

2. Sprott silver fund (PSLV): NAV FALLS TO -0.97% (Jan 12/2018)
3. Sprott gold fund (PHYS): premium to NAV FALLS TO -0.53% to NAV (Jan 12/2018 )
Note: Sprott silver trust back into NEGATIVE territory at -0.97%-/Sprott physical gold trust is back into NEGATIVE/ territory at -0.53%/Central fund of Canada’s is still in jail but being rescued by Sprott.
Sprott WINS hostile 3.1 billion bid to take over Central Fund of Canada

(courtesy Sprott/GATA)

END

And now the Gold inventory at the GLD

Jan 12/no changes in inventory at the GLD despite the rise in gold price/inventory rests at 828.96 tonnes

Jan 11/ANOTHER IDENTICAL WITHDRAWAL OF 2.95 TONNES FROM THE GLD INVENTORY/INVENTORY RESTS AT 828.96 TONNES

Jan 10/with gold up today, a strange withdrawal of 2.95 tonnes/inventory rests at 831.91 tonnes

Jan 9/no changes in gold inventory at the GLD/Inventory rests at 834.88 tonnes

Jan 8/with gold falling by a tiny $1.40 and this being after 12 consecutive gains, today they announce another 1.44 tonnes of gold withdrawal from the GLD/

Jan 5/NO CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD/INVENTORY RESTS AT 836.32 TONNES

Jan 4/2018/no change in gold inventory at the GLD/Inventory rests at 836.32 tonnes

Jan 3/a huge withdrawal of 1.18 tonnes of gold from the GLD/Inventory rests at 836.32 tonnes

Jan 2/2018/no changes in gold inventory at the GLD/inventory rests at 837.50 tonnes

Dec 29/NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD/INVENTORY RESTS AT 837.50 TONNES

Dec 28/NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD/INVENTORY RESTS AT 837.50 TONNES

Dec 27/NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD/ INVENTORY RESTS AT 837.50 TONNES

Dec 26/no change in gold inventory at the GLD

Dec 22/ A DEPOSIT OF 1.48 TONNES OF GOLD INTO GLD INVENTORY/INVENTORY RESTS AT 837.50 TONNES

Dec 21' NO CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD/INVENTORY RESTS AT 836.02 TONNES

Dec 20/DESPITE THE GOOD ADVANCE IN PRICE TODAY/THE CROOKS RAIDED THE COOKIE JAR TO THE TUNE OF 1.18 TONNES/INVENTORY RESTS AT 836.02 TONNES

Dec 19/NO CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD/INVENTORY RESTS AT 837.20 TONNES

Dec 18 SHOCKINGLY AFTER TWO GOOD GOLD TRADING DAYS, THE CROOKS RAID THE COOKIE JAR BY THE SUM OF 7.09 TONNES/INVENTORY RESTS AT 837.20 TONNES

Dec 15/NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY/RESTS AT 844.29 TONNES.

Dec 14/a good sized gain of 1.48 tonnes of gold into the GLD/inventory rests at 844.29 tones

Dec 13/no changes in gold inventory at the GLD/inventory rests at 842.81 tonnes

Dec 12/SURPRISINGLY NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD/INVENTORY RESTS AT 842.81 TONNES

Dec 11/SURPRISINGLY NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD DESPITE THE CONSTANT RAIDS ON GOLD/INVENTORY RESTS AT 842.81 TONNES

Dec 8/NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD/INVENTORY RESTS AT 842.81 TONNES

Dec 7/A BIG WITHDRAWAL OF 2.66 TONNES FROM THE GLD/INVENTORY RESTS AT 842.81 TONNES

Dec 6/No changes in GOLD inventory at the GLD/Inventory rests at 845.47 tonnes

xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx
Jan 12/2018/ Inventory rests tonight at 828.96 tonnes

*IN LAST 308 TRADING DAYS: 111.99 NET TONNES HAVE BEEN REMOVED FROM THE GLD
*LAST 243 TRADING DAYS: A NET 45.32 TONNES HAVE NOW BEEN ADDED INTO GLD INVENTORY.

end

Now the SLV Inventory

Jan 12/no changes in silver inventory at the SLV/inventory rests at 316.348 million oz/

Jan 11/NO CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV/INVENTORY RESTS AT 316.348 MILLION OZ/

Jan 10/with silver up again, we had a huge withdrawal of 1.227 million oz from the SLV/inventory rests at 316.348 million oz

Jan 9/a withdrawal of 848,000 oz from the SLV/Inventory rests at 317.575 million oz/

jan 8/no change in silver inventory at the SLV/Inventory rests at 318.423 million oz/

Jan 5/DESPITE NO CHANGE IN SILVER PRICING, WE HAD A HUGE WITHDRAWAL OF 2.026 MILLION OZ/INVENTORY RESTS AT 318.423 MILLION OZ.

Jan 4.2018/a slight withdrawal of 180,000 oz and this would be to pay for fees/inventory rests at 320.449 million oz/

Jan 3/NO CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV/INVENTORY RESTS AT 320.629 MILLION OZ.

Jan 2/WITH SILVER UP DRAMATICALLY THESE PAST 4 TRADING DAYS, THE FOLLOWING MAKES NO SENSE: WE HAD A WITHDRAWAL OF 2.83 MILLION OZ FROM THE SLV

INVENTORY RESTS AT 320.629 MILLION OZ/

Dec 29/no changes in silver inventory at the SLV/inventory rests at 323.459 million oz/

Dec 28/DESPITE THE RISE IN SILVER AGAIN BY 13 CENTS, WE LOST ANOTHER 1,251,000 OZ OF SILVER FROM THE SILVER.

Dec 27/WITH SILVER UP AGAIN BY 17 CENTS, WE LOST ANOTHER 802,000 OZ OF SILVER INVENTORY/WHAT CROOKS/INVENTORY RESTS AT 324.780 MILLION OZ/

Dec 26/no change in silver inventory at the SLV./Inventory rests at 325.582

Dec 21/NO CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV/INVENTORY RESTS AT 326.227 MILLION OZ/

Dec 20/INVENTORY REMAINS CONSTANT AT 326.337 MILLION OZ (COMPARE WITH GLD)

Dec 19/SILVER INVENTORY REMAINS CONSTANT AT 326.337 MILLION OZ

Dec 18.2017//SILVER INVENTORY CONTINUES TO REMAIN PAT./INVENTORY REMAINS AT 326.337 MILLION OZ/

INVENTORY RESTS AT 326.337 TONNES

Dec 15/NO CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV/INVENTORY RESTS AT 326.337 MILLION OZ/

Dec 14/a small withdrawal of 377,000 oz and that usually means to pay for fees./inventory rests at 326.337 million oz/

Dec 13/no change in silver inventory at the SLV/Inventory rests at 326.714 million oz/

Dec 12/WOW!ANOTHER STRANGE ONE: SILVER HAS BEEN DOWN FOR 10 CONSECUTIVE DAYS, YET THE SLV ADDS ANOTHER 1.415 MILLION OZ TO ITS INVENTORY. IN THAT 10 DAY PERIOD, SLV ADDS 9.584 MILLION OZ/

INVENTORY RESTS AT 326.714 MILLION OZ

Dec 11/WOW!! ANOTHER STRANGE ONE: SILVER DESPITE BEING DOWN FOR 9 CONSECUTIVE TRADING DAYS ADDS ANOTHER 944,000 OZ TO ITS INVENTORY. FROM NOV 30 UNTIL TODAY SILVER HAS BEEN DOWN EVERY DAY. HOWEVER THE INVENTORY OF SILVER HAS RISEN 8.169 MILLION OZ.

Dec 8/A HUGE DEPOSIT OF 2.642 MILLION OZ/INVENTORY RESTS AT 324.355 MILLION OZ/

Dec 7/strange!! with the continual whacking of silver, no change in silver inventory at the SLV/Inventory rests at 321.713

Dec 6/no change in silver inventory at the SLV/Inventory remains at 21.713 million oz.

Jan 12/2017:
Inventory 316.348 million oz

end

6 Month MM GOFO
Indicative gold forward offer rate for a 6 month duration

+ 1.70%
12 Month MM GOFO
+ 1.99%
30 day trend

end



At 3:30 pm est we receive the COT report which is basically useless due to the introduction of huge amounts of EFP’s

But for completeness sake, I am including the data:



first gold
Gold COT Report – Futures
Large Speculators Commercial Total
Long Short Spreading Long Short Long Short
289,161 85,873 69,270 150,099 370,370 508,530 525,513
Change from Prior Reporting Period
47,733 7,713 9,222 -5,005 37,666 51,950 54,601
Traders
179 90 85 45 54 263 194

Small Speculators
Long Short Open Interest
46,925 29,942 555,455
2,774 123 54,724
non reportable positions Change from the previous reporting period
COT Gold Report – Positions as of Tuesday, January 9, 2018
you will now see the power of the EFP’s
Our large speculators

those large specs who have been long in gold added a monstrous 47,733 contracts to their long side

(and these guys will morph into London based forwards)

those large specs who have been short in gold added 7713 contracts to their short side

(and these guys are not happy campers today)


Our Commercials

those commercials who have been long in gold pitched 5005 contracts from their long side

those commercials who have been short in gold added a monstrous 37,666 contracts to their short side

(and this is just the comex/it does not include efp transfers)
Our Small Speculators.

those small specs who have been long in gold added 2774 contracts to their long side

those small specs who have been short in gold added 123 contracts to their short side.



and now silver.
Silver COT Report: Futures
Large Speculators Commercial
Long Short Spreading Long Short
84,313 46,278 17,654 67,973 117,915
9,186 -6,099 -2,946 -2,507 10,243
Traders
100 46 39 42 39
Small Speculators Open Interest Total
Long Short 195,009 Long Short
25,069 13,162 169,940 181,847
-1,147 1,388 2,586 3,733 1,198
non reportable positions Positions as of: 158 112
Tuesday, January 9, 2018 © SilverSe




Our large speculators

those large specs that have been long in silver poured it on and added 9186 contracts to their long side

those large specs that have been short in silver covered a huge 6099 contracts from their short side



large specs go net long by 15200 contracts.
Our Commercials

those commercials that have been long in silver pitched 2507 contracts from their long side

those commercials that have been short in silver added a huge 10,243 contracts to their short side

and that does not included those efp transfers to London.
Our Small Speculators

those small specs that have been long in silver pitched 1265 contracts from their long side

those small specs that have been short in silver added 1356 contracts to their short side.



end


Major gold/silver trading /commentaries for FRIDAY

GOLDCORE/BLOG/MARK O’BYRNE.

GOLD/SILVER
Gold Prices Rise

END



Russia releases photos of its 1800 tonnes of gold stored in Moscow. No doubt we will probably see China doing the same and as well update the true number of oz stored in Beijing

(courtesy SilverDoctors)
Stunning Photos From Inside Russia’s “Fort Knox”

Via SilverDoctors.com,

It’s no secret that Russia has been stacking the shiny phyzz for years, and here’s a glimpse showing exactly how they stack…



Source: English Russia

Photos from main gold storage of Central Bank of Russia.



Almost 1800 tons of gold is stored here.

Russia is number six in the world by gold storage.



Today Russia’s gold is 17% of world’s gold.



However ten years ago Russia had only 3% share of the total world gold storage.



And this is how all this gold is being stored.



























What’s perhaps most interesting about these images is Russia’s willingness to release them now to the public.

One wonders how long before China shows its gold holdings too?

END



Goldman Sachs people know the truth, cryptocurrencies will go to their intrinsic value and that value is zeorh

(courtesy Goldman Sachs/Katz/Bloomberg/GATA)


Goldman says cryptocurrencies may succeed as money in some backward places

Submitted by cpowell on Wed, 2018-01-10 17:30. Section: Daily Dispatches

By Lily Katz
Bloomberg News
Wednesday, January 10, 2018

Bitcoin may seem like a solution in search of a problem in the United States, where transaction costs are already low and the dollar stable. But in developing countries, digital currencies could succeed as a real form of money, Goldman Sachs Group Inc. says.

Many currencies in sub-Saharan Africa have lost value due to high inflation and supply mismanagement. As a result, foreign money makes up more than 90 percent of deposits and loans in the Democratic Republic of the Congo, and Zimbabwe demonetized its currency in 2015. Bitcoin could also be useful in regions where governments impose strict rules on the use of traditional currencies from other countries.

“In recent decades the U.S. dollar has served its purpose relatively well,” Goldman Sachs strategists Zach Pandl and Charles Himmelberg wrote in a report today. But “in those countries and corners of the financial system where the traditional services of money are inadequately supplied, Bitcoin (and cryptocurrencies more generally) may offer viable alternatives.” …

… For the remainder of the report:

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2018-01-10/goldman-says-viabilit…



END


South Korea officially is planning to ban cryptocurrency trading which sent bitcoin initially plummeting and it threw all virtual coin markets into turmoil.
(courtesy Reuters)
South Korea plans to ban cryptocurrency trading, rattling markets

Submitted by cpowell on Thu, 2018-01-11 14:30. Section: Daily Dispatches

By Cynthia Kim and Dahee Kim
Reuters
Thursday, January 11. 2018

SEOUL — South Korea’s government said today it plans to ban cryptocurrency trading, sending bitcoin prices plummeting and throwing the virtual coin market into turmoil as the nation’s police and tax authorities raided local exchanges on alleged tax evasion.

The clampdown in South Korea, a crucial source of global demand for cryptocurrency, came as policymakers around the world struggled to regulate an asset whose value has skyrocketed over the last year.

Justice minister Park Sang-ki said the government was preparing a bill to ban trading of the virtual currency on domestic exchanges. …

… For the remainder of the report:

https://www.reuters.com/article/uk-southkorea-bitcoin/south-korea-plans-…
Your early FRIDAY morning currency, Asian stock market results, important USA/Asian currency crosses, gold/silver pricing overnight along with the price of oil Major stories overnight/9 AM EST


i) Chinese yuan vs USA dollar/CLOSED UP AT 6.4610 /shanghai bourse CLOSED UP AT 3.59 POINTS 0.10% / HANG SANG CLOSED UP 292.15 POINTS OR 0.94%
2. Nikkei closed DOWN 56.61 POINTS OR 0.24% /USA: YEN FALLS TO 111.15

3. Europe stocks OPENED GREEN /USA dollar index FALLS TO 91.38/Euro RISES TO 1.2124

3b Japan 10 year bond yield: RISES TO . +.078/ GOVERNMENT INTERVENTION !!!!(Japan buying 100% of bond issuance)/Japanese yen vs usa cross now at 111.15/ THIS IS TROUBLESOME AS BANK OF JAPAN IS RUNNING OUT OF BONDS TO BUY./JAPAN 10 YR YIELD FINALLY IN THE POSITIVE/BANK OF JAPAN LOSING CONTROL OF THEIR YIELD CURVE AS THEY PURCHASE ALL BONDS TO GET TO ZERO RATE!!

3c Nikkei now JUST BELOW 17,000

3d USA/Yen rate now well below the important 120 barrier this morning

3e WTI:: 63.42 and Brent: 69.09

3f Gold UP/Yen UP

3g Japan is to buy the equivalent of 108 billion uSA dollars worth of bond per month or $1.3 trillion. Japan’s GDP equals 5 trillion usa./“HELICOPTER MONEY” OFF THE TABLE FOR NOW /REVERSE OPERATION TWIST ON THE BONDS: PURCHASE OF LONG BONDS AND SELLING THE SHORT END

Japan to buy 100% of all new Japanese debt and by 2018 they will have 25% of all Japanese debt. Fifty percent of Japanese budget financed with debt.

3h Oil UP for WTI and UP FOR Brent this morning

3i European bond buying continues to push yields lower on all fronts in the EMU. German 10yr bund RISES TO +.584%/Italian 10 yr bond yield UP to 2.007% /SPAIN 10 YR BOND YIELD UP TO 1.528%

3j Greek 10 year bond yield RISES TO : 3.905?????????????????

3k Gold at $1331.15 silver at:17.13: 6 am est) SILVER NEXT RESISTANCE LEVEL AT $18.50

3l USA vs Russian rouble; (Russian rouble UP 7/100 in roubles/dollar) 56.98

3m oil into the 63 dollar handle for WTI and 69 handle for Brent/

3n Higher foreign deposits out of China sees huge risk of outflows and a currency depreciation. This can spell financial disaster for the rest of the world/China forced to do QE!! as it lowers its yuan value to the dollar/

JAPAN ON JAN 29.2016 INITIATES NIRP. THIS MORNING THEY SIGNAL THEY MAY END NIRP. TODAY THE USA/YEN TRADES TO 111.15 DESTROYING JAPANESE CITIZENS WITH HIGHER FOOD INFLATION

30 SNB (Swiss National Bank) still intervening again in the markets driving down the SF. It is not working: USA/SF this morning 0.9710 as the Swiss Franc is still rising against most currencies. Euro vs SF is 1.1774 well above the floor set by the Swiss Finance Minister. Thomas Jordan, chief of the Swiss National Bank continues to purchase euros trying to lower value of the Swiss Franc.

3p BRITAIN VOTES AFFIRMATIVE BREXIT/LOWER PARLIAMENT APPROVES BREXIT COMMENCEMENT/ARTICLE 50 COMMENCES MARCH 29/2017

3r the 10 Year German bund now POSITIVE territory with the 10 year RISING to +0.584%

The bank withdrawals were causing massive hardship to the Greek bank. the Greek referendum voted overwhelming “NO”. Next step for Greece will be the recapitalization of the banks and that will be difficult.

4. USA 10 year treasury bond at 2.549% early this morning. Thirty year rate at 2.880% /

5. Details Ransquawk, Bloomberg, Deutsche bank/Jim Reid.

(courtesy Jim Reid/Bloomberg/Deutsche bank/zero hedge)
World Stocks Hit New All Time High; Hong Kong Up For Record 14 Straight Days

World stocks hit a new all time high on Friday with U.S. equity futures rising for the 8th trading day out of 9 in 2018 – the Dow is just a little over 300 points away from 26,000 – alongside Asian shares while European stocks and oil are little changed. The euro surged to a three-year high as Germany was said to reach a “grand coalition” agreement, heaping more pressure on the dollar before inflation data.

European stocks advanced with U.S. equity futures as BlackRock Inc. kicked off a busy earnings season with profits that beat estimates.

MSCI’world stock index hit yet another record high and was on track to rise for its eighth of the nine business days so far this year — for a total increase of 3.5%. “This bull market is highly related to the fact we are facing good growth, low inflation and soft monetary policy normalization. If any of those were to be shaken that would be a big problem,” said Jeanne Asseraf Bitton, head of cross-asset research at Lyxor Asset Management.

The euro is set for its strongest close since December 2014, leading most G10 currencies higher against the dollar. The Stoxx Europe 600 Index climbed for the first day in three. Hong Kong’s equity index extended a record winning streak as data showed Chinese exports rose in December. Oil fell after a four-day rally, even as most commodities climbed, with gold heading for its highest close since September.

Reports that German policymakers are set to resolve a months-long political stalemate added to news yesterday that the European Central Bank is open to tweaking its policy guidance soon to align it with a strengthening economy. The euro’s overnight index swap rates have risen sharply this week as traders priced in a higher chance of a rate hike early next year.

asd

In response to the EUR strength, German 10-year bond yield hit a fresh five-month high of 0.539 percent after Chancellor Angela Merkel’s conservatives and the Social Democrats agreed a blueprint for formal coalition negotiations.

European stocks took their cue from a recovery in Asian trading, but were set to end the week on a dud note as a surging euro weighed on European exporters and kept gains on Germany’s DAX muted despite the breakthrough in coalition talks. As a result, the MSCI index of European stocks index eked out a 0.1% gain. While the Euro’s rise has reflected growing optimism over the bloc’s economic recovery, some have flagged it as a potential brake on stocks. Monica Defend, head of strategy at Amundi Asset Management, said the currency, for which she has a target of $1.22, was the biggest risk to European equities.

Rising European bond yields were also driven higher by minutes on Thursday of the ECB’s December meeting that showed it thinks it should revisit its communication stance in early 2018. Lyxor’s Bitton said Bund yields were already near to hitting her target for the first quarter. “Markets were a bit too complacent about bonds so they took some excuses to correct,” she told Reuters. “We were a little surprised that the market reacted so strongly to the ECB.” The minutes showed that with the euro zone seeing its best growth in a decade, ECB policymakers were considering a gradual shift in its stance to reduce the focus on bond purchases and raise the emphasis on interest rates.

Overnight a blowout china trade surplus, helped by booming global trade, helped Chinese exports to surge last year while import growth slowed to 4.5%. Exports growth for China slowed to 10.9% yoy in December from an increase of 11.5% yoy in November, in line with consensus. Imports growth dropped to 4.5% yoy from 17.6% yoy in November, well below consensus. In sequential terms, exports rose 0.5% mom sa non-annualized, down from a strong increase of 4.1% in November. Imports fell 3.7% mom sa non-annualized, decelerating from +1.8% in November. The trade surplus increased to US$54.7bn, the highest since February 2016, from US$39.0bn in November.

Chinese Trade Balance (CNY)(Dec) 362.0B vs. Exp. 235.2B (Prev. 263.6B).

Chinese Exports (CNY)(Dec) Y/Y 7.4% vs. Exp. 6.7% (Prev. 10.3%)
Chinese Imports (CNY)(Dec) Y/Y 0.9% vs. Exp. 11.8% (Prev. 15.6%)

Chinese Trade Balance (USD)(Dec) 54.69B vs. Exp. 37.00B (Prev. 40.21B).

Chinese Exports (USD)(Dec) Y/Y 10.9% vs. Exp. 10.8% (Prev. 12.3%)
Chinese Imports (USD)(Dec) Y/Y 4.5% vs. Exp. 15.1% (Prev. 17.7%)



Some observations on China trade from Goldman:

The significant slowdown in imports growth should have been in a large part due to a notable moderation of volume growth. The moderation of year-on-year exports growth was primarily due to very weak sequential momentum in December, though a high base in December of the previous year also contributed somewhat. Exports prices might have decelerated sequentially in December, but exports volume growth should have also slowed, amid a slowing though still strong global demand, as suggested the GS Global Leading Indicator. The pace of appreciation in CNY against the USD has been faster since November (though less strong against the basket), and if the trend is extended, this could potentially weigh on exports growth in the coming months. The potential negative impacts on exports (and recent round of appreciation) might be part of reasons for reported suspension of CNY countercyclical factor, though more importantly we view this could signal a policy step further toward liberalization of the FX regime. And we maintain our view for a moderate CNY depreciation in the coming months, which could be supportive to exports growth. However, whether the support from exports can offset headwinds to activity growth from supply-side measures and prevent the growth from declining notably, remains uncertain. The official from the China Customs also mentioned potential pressure for exports growth in Q1 and possible moderation in exports growth for the whole year in the press conference. Against the backdrop of a less benign exports growth, we continue to expect policy to be broadly supportive for domestic demand, in order to keep stability of overall growth.

China Customs said China trade outlook is upbeat for this year, but added it will be difficult for Chinese trade to maintain double digit growth.

The strong trade data, helped the onshore yuan strengthen as much as 0.42% to the highest intraday level since Sept. 8 at 6.4702 per U.S. dollar. The CNY rose 0.41% to 6.4714 as of 3:31pm in Shanghai; CNH reverses earlier loss to advance 0.18% to 6.4790 in Hong Kong.

Hong Kong investors were unfazed by signals local equities may be overbought as the benchmark gauge rose for a record 14th day. Tencent Holdings Ltd. and energy explorers led the advance on Friday. The Hang Seng Index closes 0.9% higher; gauge has added more than 7% since Dec. 20. The 14-day relative strength index has risen to 80, the highest since February last year and above the 70 level that signals to some traders an asset is overbought.

In geopolitics, South Korea and US are in discussions to develop ties with North Korea, according to Yonhap citing an envoy. US Treasury Secretary Mnuchin confirms US plans to reimpose sanctions on Iran, while a separate report states the White House plans to announce decision on Friday. North Korea’s propaganda outlet called for the total suspension of joint military drills between South Korea and the United States on Friday, according to Yonhap.

Elsewhere, an exchange-traded fund tracking Brazilian equities dropped in after-hours U.S. trading after S&P Global Ratings cut Brazil’s sovereign credit rating deeper into junk territory. Bitcoin steadied after four days of losses amid increasing scrutiny from regulators around the world.

The end of a turbulent week for bond markets also saw U.S. Treasury yields extending Thursday’s pullback after China disputed a media report that government officials had recommended it slow or halt its purchases of U.S. bonds. The 10-year Treasury yield stood at 2.5498 percent, settling down from Wednesday’s 10-month high of 2.597 percent when fears of a bond bear market gripped investors. “Our target for U.S. 10-year treasuries is 2.8 — and we might afford up to 3 percent — but going beyond that it’s becoming an alert signal,” said Amundi’s Defend.

Oil prices retreated from 2014 highs hit the previous day, but stayed near three-year highs on signs of tightening supply in the United States. Brent crude futures hovered at $69.28 a barrel after hitting $70.05 a barrel on Thursday, their highest level since November 2014, while U.S. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude futures stood at $63.49, down 0.3 percent on the day.

Bulletin Headline Summary from RanSquawk

EUR takes out 2017 highs and the 1.2100 level after German coalition talks appear to make a breakthrough
European equities trade with little in the way of firm direction as EUR gains cap upside for the DAX
Looking ahead, highlights include US CPI, retail sales and earnings from Wells Fargo, JP Morgan and Blackrock

Market Snapshot

S&P 500 futures up 0.2% to 2,775.50
STOXX Europe 600 up 0.16% to 397.90
MSCI Asia Pacific up 0.3% to 181.02
MSCI Asia Pacific ex Japan up 0.8% to 590.07
Nikkei down 0.2% to 23,653.82
Topix down 0.6% to 1,876.24
Hang Seng Index up 0.9% to 31,412.54
Shanghai Composite up 0.1% to 3,428.94
Sensex up 0.3% to 34,597.69
Australia S&P/ASX 200 up 0.04% to 6,070.05
Kospi up 0.3% to 2,496.42
German 10Y yield fell 0.3 bps to 0.578%
Euro up 0.8% to $1.2133
Italian 10Y yield rose 1.2 bps to 1.781%
Spanish 10Y yield fell 2.5 bps to 1.513%
Brent futures little changed at $69.21/bbl
Gold spot up 0.7% to $1,331.43
U.S. Dollar Index down 0.6% to 91.33

Top Overnight news from Bloomberg

Japanese investors sold U.S. sovereign bonds for a second straight month in November while continuing to buy German and French bonds
According to three-month options on 10-year Treasury futures, volatility remains near record lows, suggesting investors aren’t worried about big price moves in either direction. That contrasts with the jump in volatility seen during the “taper tantrum” of 2013
Fed’s Powell is being asked by Senate Banking Committee member Chris Van Hollen to give assurance he would shield the central bank from any White House effort to influence its oversight of Deutsche Bank AG, which has been drawn into investigations of Russian meddling in U.S. politics
Demand for Chinese products is holding up as growth in major trade partners remains intact, and a feared trade war between China and the U.S. has yet to materialize; the trade surplus swells to its largest since January 2016 as imports slump
China’s broadest gauge of new credit trailed projections and broad money growth posted the slowest pace on record, signaling that a campaign to cut financial risk is gaining traction
Goldman Sachs Group Inc., JPMorgan Chase & Co. and Morgan Stanley are on a hiring drive in Frankfurt as global investment banks race to establish new headquarters inside the European Union in time for Brexit

Asia equity markets are mostly positive following record highs across all major US indices on optimism heading into earnings season and where energy outperformed with oil at 3yr highs. ASX 200 (Unch) was kept positive throughout the day by commodity-related stocks, but still closed flat due to losses in the largest weighted financials sector. In Japan, index-heavyweight Fast Retailing outperformed and hit its highest in over 2 years after strong quarterly results, although the Nikkei 225 (-0.2%) failed to benefit with the broader market negative on JPY strength. Elsewhere, Hang Seng (+0.9%) and was positive following better than expected Chinese Trade Surplus and Exports, as well as a more convincing liquidity effort by the PBoC. However, the Shanghai Comp (+0.1%) was less decisive as participants also digested disappointing Import numbers and the fact that open market operations still resulted to a net weekly drain. Finally, 10yr JGBs were marginally higher with support seen amid the dampened risk tone in Japan and amid slightly firmer demand in the 40yr JGB auction. The PBoC injected CNY 140bln via 7-day reverse repos and CNY 130bln via 14-day reverse repos. This resulted to a daily net injection of CNY 180bln, but also a weekly net drain of CNY 60bln vs. last week’s CNY 510bln net drain.

Top Asian News

Another HNA Stock Halted From Trading, Pending Announcement
Mubadala Is Said to Mull Options for $920 Million RHB Stake
India’s Top Court Judges Break Ranks With Chief Justice
Nomura Sees Strong Year in Japan M&A, Fueled by Equity Finance

European equities (Eurostoxx 600 0.2%) have been trading with little in the way of firm direction with any potential gains in the DAX (following German coalition talks) capped by EUR strength. In terms of sector specifics, energy names are seen lower, in-fitting with the moves seen in WTI and Brent while consumer discretionary names are outperforming with Fiat (+2.7%) top of the FSTE MIB after unveiling plans to invest further in their Michigan plant and provide bonuses to US workers following US tax legislation. Other individual movers include Vivendi (-1.3%) seen lower after warning on guidance, whilst GKN (+24.7%) after rejecting Melrose’s latest takeover offer; nonetheless, sources suggest that Melrose will continue their pursuit of the Co. In European fixed income, the relative calm did not last long, for core EU debt at least, as Gilts succumbed to selling pressure and reversed to a fresh low at 123.69 (-16 ticks vs +9 ticks at best), while Bunds extended to the upside to register a new Eurex peak at 160.62 (+31 ticks vs -14 ticks at worst). FX markets and even faster/frantic trade were the catalyst or driver for moves in bonds with the 10 year German benchmark and even moreso periphery paper the beneficiaries of EUR strength and upbeat tone/fiscal pledges from the new German coalition Government. Off peaks and troughs now as price action abates somewhat, while USTs remain largely sidelined awaiting today’s key data

Top European News

Euro Surges to Three-Year High After German Coalition Accord
Puma Plunges as Gucci Owner Kering Moves to Shed Its Stake
For This Soccer Giant, a Losing Streak Threatens a Takeover Deal
Theresa May Facing Winter of Discontent With U.K. Health Crisis
Russia’s Oligarchs Brace for U.S. Report Listing Putin Friends

In FX markets, EUR has been extending gains in wake of hawkish December ECB minutes, with added boost coming from news of a breakthrough in Germany to form a grand coalition Government. EUR/USD showed little resistance this time at last year’s 1.2092 peak or the psychological 1.2100 level with layered macro bids propelling the pair to a circa 1.2135 high (best since December 2014). Tech studies show a bullish target 1.2169, but ultimately the charts signal 1.2350 and 1.2430 (200 MMA) as the next major objectives. On the flip-side, big 2.5bln option expiries at 1.2100 may exert a gravitational pull, but with the USD on the back foot perhaps not (DXY down near 91.30). Indeed, the Dollar is weaker across the board, with Cable tripping stops above 1.3600, USD/JPY eyeing bids at 111.00 and stops below, USD/CAD and USD/CHF both close to big figures or round numbers at 1.2500 and 0.9700 respectively. Antipodeans lagging a bit, but still bid vs the Greenback and only just off overnight peaks (AUD/USD and NZD/USD just below 0.7900 and 0.7275 respectively, with weaker Chinese imports within the latest trade balance perhaps dampening sentiment somewhat).

In commodities, in the energy complex, both WTI and Brent crude futures are seen lower despite the softer USD as Brent makes a pullback from the USD 70.00 level, leading some to question how much further scope there is for the ongoing rally in prices. Energy specific newsflow remains light, however, markets will be on the watch for any announcements today from the White House regarding sanction on Iran. In metals markets, both spot gold and silver have benefitted from the softer USD. Elsewhere, steel futures saw their largest daily decline in a month after three consecutive days of gains as demand faltered overnight. Finally, the latest Chinese trade data saw a 4.3% decline in copper imports for the month of December. US Commerce Secretary Ross says results of investigation into national security impact from steel imports have been submitted to President Trump who has 90 days to decide on any potential action.

Looking at the day ahead, Italy’s November IP and the final reading of France and Spain’s December CPI are due. Over in the US, there is the December CPI (core of 0.2% mom and 1.7% expected) and retail sales along with the November business inventories. Onto other events, the Bundesbank’s Weidmann and the Fed’s Rosengren will speak. Elsewhere, Wells Fargo, JP Morgan and Blackrock will release its results.

US Event Calendar

8:30am: US CPI MoM, est. 0.1%, prior 0.4%; CPI Ex Food and Energy MoM, est. 0.2%, prior 0.1%
8:30am: US CPI YoY, est. 2.1%, prior 2.2%; CPI Ex Food and Energy YoY, est. 1.7%, prior 1.7%
8:30am: Retail Sales Advance MoM, est. 0.5%, prior 0.8%; Retail Sales Ex Auto MoM, est. 0.3%, prior 1.0%
8:30am: Retail Sales Ex Auto and Gas, est. 0.4%, prior 0.8%; Retail Sales Control Group, est. 0.4%, prior 0.8%
8:30am: Real Avg Weekly Earnings YoY, prior 0.83%; Real Avg Hourly Earning YoY, prior 0.2%
10am: Business Inventories, est. 0.4%, prior -0.1%

DB’s Jim Reid concludes the overnight wrap

After a long period of calm, suddenly the market is getting startled by all manner of things. Indeed it’s been a pass the parcel week for reasons for the sell-off. The BoJ started things off on Tuesday, China added to it by a tweak to the way they managed the Yuan and then remarks about reducing their Treasury holdings (subsequently denied) turbo charged it and then just as things were reversing, along came a surprisingly hawkish set of ECB minutes as the baton got passed from Treasuries to European bonds as to the epicentre of the sell-off. If that wasn’t enough today we have US CPI which should be the focal monthly US release this year. DB are in line with consensus with +0.1% mom headline (+2.1% yoy) and +0.2% mom/+1.7% yoy (unchanged) core expected. As a reminder our economists think US inflation will pick up more meaningfully from Q2 onwards.

In a week of surprises is there one last sting in the tail though? Ahead of this, and the start of US bank earnings today, the minutes from the December ECB meeting showed that there was a “widely shared” view amongst ECB officials that the Governing Council’s communication would need to evolve gradually, without a change in sequencing, if the economy continued to expand and inflation converged towards the Governing Council’s aim. The minutes also showed that “the language pertaining to various dimensions of the monetary policy stance and forward guidance could be revisited early in the coming year (2018)”. The key was “widely shared” view as this indicates that a desire to move policy on was more prevalent than just amongst one or two outlier council members. Our rates strategist Francis Yared noted that the “without a change in sequencing” implies that the first thing to go will be the QE part of forward guidance which means either removing the potential for increase “in size and/or duration” mention in the statement (low hanging fruit) or remove the possibility to extend beyond Sep-18 (more hawkish). Overall this makes the January 25th meeting a little more interesting now.

10 yr bunds which had troughed at 0.512% in the morning session, hit a high of 0.596% in the run up to the end of the session with a late rally leading to a close of 0.579% (+3.9bp). The highest level since the major leg of the rally that began at the start of 2016 is the 0.60% print seen very briefly in July last year. So we were nearly at 2 year highs yesterday. Bunds are finally succumbing to gravity. Elsewhere, Gilts and French OATs also rose 2.2bp and 4.9bp respectively, with similar increases at the 2y part of the curve.

However after Europe closed, a strong US 30 year auction led to decent rally in Treasuries and after hitting an earlier high of 2.5679%, 10 years closed at 2.538% (-2bp). They’re at up c1bp in Asia this morning.

In China, the December trade surplus was released this morning and was above market at $54.7bn (vs. $37bn) with imports lower than expected at 4.5% yoy (vs. 15.1%) but exports were broadly in line at 10.9% yoy. This morning in Asia, markets are a mixed. The Hang Seng (+0.48%) and Kospi (+0.25%) are both up modestly, while China’s CSI300 (-0.09%) and Nikkei (-0.31%) are down as we type.

Now recapping other markets performance from yesterday. US bourses rebounded to fresh highs, with the S&P (+0.70%), Dow (+0.81%) and Nasdaq (+0.81%) all closing higher. Within the S&P, gains were mainly led by energy and industrial stocks. European markets broadly weakened, with the Stoxx 600 (-0.34%), CAC (-0.29%) and DAX (-0.59%) all lower, but the FTSE rose 0.19%, led by mining and energy stocks.

Turning to currencies, the US dollar index fell 0.50% while the Euro jumped 0.70% following the hawkish ECB minutes and Sterling also gained 0.23%. Brent crude briefly broke through $70/bbl for the first time in three years, but pared
back gains to close marginally higher at $69.26/bbl. Elsewhere, precious metals strengthened (Gold +0.42%; Silver +0.06%) while other base metals were mixed but little changed (Aluminium -0.36%; Copper -0.82%; Zinc +0.32%).

Away from the markets and onto Fed speak now. The Fed’s Dudley noted three rate hikes in 2018 “doesn’t seem to be an unreasonable sort of starting point” but the final trajectory will depend on how the economy and inflation evolves. In view of the tax cuts and stronger economic momentum in the US, he has lifted his 2018 GDP growth forecast by c0.5ppt to 2.5%-2.75%, with the tax benefits accounting for about 2/3 of the upgrade. Looking further ahead, he noted that the “Fed may have to press harder on the brakes at some point over the next few years”, in part as if labour market tightens much further, it will be harder to slow the economy to a sustainable pace.

Staying in the US, in an interview with President Trump, the WSJ noted Mr Trump reiterated his stance of exiting from the NAFTA (North American Free Trade Agreement) if it can’t be reworked in his favour, although he is willing to be “a little bit flexible”. In terms of the Mexican border wall, he said “they (Mexico) can pay for it indirectly through NAFTA”. Elsewhere, Wal-Mart has raised the starting pay for its US workers by c10% to $11/hour, which is expected to cost the retailer c$300m. If other US firms follow through, it may just add to the inflation pressures the market has been largely waiting for.

Back in the UK, the former UK Independence party leader Nigel Farage tweeted “just maybe, we should have a second referendum (on Brexit)”, a view that is echoed by a Labour member of the House of Lords Andrew Adonis who noted “…I agree…bring it on”. That said, PM May has ruled out another vote as it would be a “betrayal” of the 52% voters who had previously voted for Brexit.

Finally, our FX team has recently raised their 2018 EURUSD forecast to 1.30. Yesterday, our European economists wrote a note considering the ramifications for the euro area and in particular ECB policy from a higher Euro. Assuming a gradual, linear appreciation to 1.30 at the end of 2018 and then remaining steady in 2019 and 2020, Our economists estimate that the ECB staff’s annual core HICP inflation forecast profile would face a downwards parallel shift by 0.1-0.2pp over the period 2018 to 2020. That said, they view the FX-adjusted profile for core inflation as still consistent with their call that the ECB ends QE net purchases by the end of 2018. Core inflation would rise from c1.0% in 2018 to 1.6-1.7% in 2020. Refer to their note for more details.

Before we take a look at today’s calendar, we wrap up with other data releases from yesterday. In the US, the core PPI (ex food and energy) was below expectations at -0.1% mom (vs. 0.2%) and 2.3% yoy (vs. 2.5% expected), with the miss mainly due to a decline in the price of volatile trade services. Notably, the healthcare services component was solid, up 0.37% mom, which is the largest increase since 2009. This lifted annual inflation for this component to 1.6% yoy and should be reflected in the PCE healthcare print later on. Elsewhere, the weekly initial jobless claims was above market (261k vs. 245k) while continuing claims was lower than expected (1,867k vs. 1,920k). The Eurozone’s November IP was higher than expected at 1.0% mom (vs. 0.8%) and 3.2% yoy (vs 3.1% expected), which backs up the solid PMIs recently.

Elsewhere, Italy’s November retail sales was also above market at 1.4% yoy (vs 1.2% expected), while the December Bank of France industrial sentiment rose to a fresh seven year high of 110 (vs. 107). In Germany, 2017 GDP growth was softer than expected at 2.2% (vs. 2.3% expected) but still the strongest annual reading since 2011. Finally, in the BOE’s 4Q credit conditions survey, lenders reported no change in the supply of credit to corporates. The demand for refinancing of mortgages posted the biggest increase for almost a decade, but the supply of unsecured credit to households was reported to have tightened, with a further tightening expected in 1Q.

Looking at the day ahead, Italy’s November IP and the final reading of France and Spain’s December CPI are due. Over in the US, there is the December CPI (core of 0.2% mom and 1.7% expected) and retail sales along with the November business inventories. Onto other events, the Bundesbank’s Weidmann and the Fed’s Rosengren will speak. Elsewhere, Wells Fargo, JP Morgan and Blackrock will release its results.












3. ASIAN AFFAIRS

i)Late THURSDAY night/FRIDAY morning: Shanghai closed UP 3.59 points or 0.10% /Hang Sang CLOSED UP 292.15 pts or 0.94% / The Nikkei closed DOWN 56.61 POINTS OR 0.24%/Australia’s all ordinaires CLOSED UP 0.01%/Chinese yuan (ONSHORE) closed WELL UP at 6.4610/Oil UP to 63.42 dollars per barrel for WTI and 69.09 for Brent. Stocks in Europe OPENED GREEN. ONSHORE YUAN CLOSED UP AGAINST THE DOLLAR AT 6.4610. OFFSHORE YUAN CLOSED DOWN AGAINST THE ONSHORE YUAN AT 6.4692 //ONSHORE YUAN MUCH STRONGER AGAINST THE DOLLAR/OFF SHORE STRONGER TO THE DOLLAR/. THE DOLLAR (INDEX) IS MUCH WEAKER AGAINST ALL MAJOR CURRENCIES. CHINA IS STILL HAPPY TODAY.(GOOD MARKETS )
3 a NORTH KOREA/USA

/SOUTH KOREA

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3 b JAPAN AFFAIRS
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c) REPORT ON CHINA


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4. EUROPEAN AFFAIRS

GREECE

Greece is still in a mess as unpaid taxes make up a huge 55% of the country’s GDP. Greek tax authorities have seized pensions, salaries and assets of more than 180,000 taxpayers in 2017.

Greek banks also have a huge amount of non performing loans on their books and they are seeking a 90% haircut on those loans.

To show you how bad it is in Greece, the citizens there are going on strike to be allowed to strike

(courtesy zero hedge)
Greeks Go On Strike To Be Allowed To Strike

According to the market, the situation in Greece has staged a tremendous recovery. So much so, in fact, that Greek 2Y bonds are now trading inside US 2Y Treasurys. Yes, according to the market, Greece is now a safer credit than the US.



And yet, a quick peek inside the actual Greek economy, reveals that nothing has been fixed. In fact, one can argue that things are now worse than they were when Greece defaulted (for the first time),

According to statistics from IAPR, unpaid taxes in Greece currently make up more than 55% of the country’s GDP due to – well – the inability of people to pay the rising taxes. Overdue debt to the state has reached nearly €100 billion with only €15 billion possible to be returned to the government’s coffers, as most are due to bankrupt businesses and deceased individuals.

The Greek tax authorities seized pensions, salaries, and assets of more than 180,000 taxpayers in 2017, meanwhile bad debt to the state treasury continue to grow. The Independent Authority for Public Revenue confiscated nearly €4 billion in the first 10 months of this year with forced measures to be reportedly taken against 1.7 million defaulters in 2018.

Bad debt owed to the state in Greece has been growing at €1 billion a month since 2014, and nearly 4.17 million taxpayers currently owe money to the country, which means that every second Greek is directly indebted.

* * *

Demonstrating the full extent of the economic mess, a recent report from Kathimerini revealed that Greek lenders are proposing huge haircuts, as high as 90%, for borrowers with debts from consumer loans, credit cards or small business loans without collateral.

In the context of the sale of a 2.5-billion-euro bad-loan portfolio named Venus, Alpha Bank is using the incentive of major haircuts in letters it has sent to some 156,000 debtors. The fact that this concerns some 240,000 bad loans means that some debtors may have two or three overdue loans.

Another major local lender, Eurobank, is employing the same strategy for a set of loans adding up to 350 million euros. Most of them range between 5,000 and 7,000 euros each and have been overdue for over a decade. Yes, most Greek are unable to repay a few thousands euros and would rather default.

This means that the banks are expecting to collect a small amount of those debts, coming to 250 million euros for Alpha and 35 million for Eurobank – whopping 90% haircuts – accepting that the rest of the debt is uncollectible.

* * *

But for the most accurate representation of real state of affairs, we go to Reuters which reports that Greek subway workers, dockers and state-employed doctors plan to strike on Friday in the country’s first major industrial action of 2018, to protest a new law that will restrict their right to walk off the job.

That’s right, Greeks are going on strike to be allowed to strike.

On Jan. 15, parliament is expected to vote through the contentious reform, which would tighten rules on declaring work stoppages, or labor strikes, a condition set by creditors who have loaned Greece billions since 2010. At present, Greek unions can call strikes with the support of one third of their members. The new law would raise that requirement to 50 percent, which creditors hope would limit the frequency of strikes and improve productivity that lags about 20 percent behind the EU average, according to OECD data.

Don’t laugh, but strikes are so common in Greece that there is a website dedicated to them.

According to Reuters, Friday’s stoppage is being backed by several unions, including GSEE, the largest private-sector one. “It is essentially scrapping the only weapon workers have left to protect themselves, particularly after collective working agreements were shelved,” said GSEE spokesman Dimitris Karageorgopoulos.

Stavros Kafounis, head of the Commercial Association of Athens, which represents retailers, said strikes amplified the country’s economic problems.

“Every time there is labour action in public transport it shuts businesses down, adding to already slow business,” he said.

A majority of lawmakers are expected to vote in favor of the bill, which will be the latest bitter pill to swallow for a government dominated by the leftist Syriza movement, which swept to power in 2015 promising to end austerity, only to accept another, deeper and more humiliating bailout just months later.

Despite the Greek people’s protest against depriving them of their constitutional right to strike, Greece needs to pass the regulation and a raft of other measures for lenders to sign off on a review of progress in its bailout programme, which the country hopes to exit this summer. Otherwise all those greater fools who have been buying Greek 2Y bonds on hopes the country will soon be eligible for the ECB’s QE will end up nursing massive losses.

And as if the Greeks weren’t angry enough already, Monday’s parliamentary bill also seeks to introduce electronic auctions that could facilitate foreclosures to wrestle down a mountain of toxic debts weighing on the country’s banks, rationalise spending on state benefits, set targets for selling off assets of power utility PPC, and regulations on the operation of casinos.

In other words, with the click of a button one would get a foreclosure notice for a late mortgage payment.

* * *

At the end of the day, of course, it’s all for nothing: one union leader said that, regardless of new legislation, workers would continue to strike.

“If they don’t like it let them fire us… or arrest us,” said Spyros Revithis, head of a public transport workers’ union that staged 15 strikes in 2017. “This government is a Trojan Horse of neo-liberalism on labour rights.”

We couldn’t have said it better.


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