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Alias Born | 03/13/2017 |
Sunday, January 14, 2018 10:50:07 AM
In the past couple weeks we received formal updates as to current share count and subscribers, so we can judge our market cap valuation more appropriately, and with less guess work.
$6.02M Market Cap - based on 4.3B shares - at $.0014 per share
$462K in annualized revenue - based on 1,100 subscribers - at $420 per year each ($35*12)
So our market cap is at a revenue factor of 13.03x. Which is now pretty much fair to say there is 0 hype baked into our price, we've earned exactly where we are at which is good. This makes me feel very safe with our floor and excited for how easy it is to realize our upside.
I can see us organically growing (no "deals) to 2500 subs quickly, easily within the quarter, or much sooner, with advertising and at that point our $1.05M in revenue would only be only 5.73x if our market value stayed the same. Which is way too low, which is to say it wouldnt stay the same. Plus companies that go from 0-$1M of annualized recurring revenue in less than a year, and $500K to $1M in less than a quarter, probably deserves better than the 13x we have. But if 13x stayed the same, our pps would move to $.0032
--- and if it goes to 10,000 subscribers ($4.2M rev), all that same math lands at $.0127 pps
And then we can take into account our rev factors should maybe possibly be 25x, or 50x, if it reflects a recurring subscriber base growing rapidly. So lets how these alternatives play out
1,100 subs, PPS at 4.3B shares with a rev factor of -
13x - .0014
25x - .0027
50x - .0154
- I am not counting on the rev factor increasing until we show the extra step of growth, so the 2nd and 3rd number here are irrelevant, but not necessarily in the following sets
2,500 subs, PPS at 4.3B shares with a rev factor of -
13x - .0032
25x - .0061
50x - .0122
- in these cases, the 13x is probably the irrelevant factor
10,000 subs, PPS at 4.3B shares with a rev factor of -
13x - .0127
25x - .0244
50x - .0488
- in these cases, the 13x is probably the irrelevant factor
And I dont even touch on what happens with deals. If we ever get pre-installed somewhere seen by millions and jump into the tens of thousands of subscribers with the "stroke of a pen" - then suddenly all these numbers are way too small. Same, if our advertising simply brings in 20,000 latinos directly (far from impossible)
I think that .0061 in the middle (2500 subs, 25x) is super obtainable in the short to mid term. I'd call that the worst case scenario and our jumping off point into the stars.
Good luck to all, except a few working against us. I cant wait to see what news, if any, the long weekend brings us on Tuesday.
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