Vascular Biogenics Ltd (VBLT)

[staccani]

Refined estimated survival.

We know that:
1) the last 50% of the patients were enrolled between Sept and November 2016
2) The first 50ish between August 2015 and May 2016
3) Ca 75 patients between June and August 2016

Using some estimates , as of now, patients above at point :

1) were enrolled 15 months ago on avg
2) were enrolled 23 months ago on avg
3) were enrolled 18 months ago on avg

Assuming the 75% number of events has been reached 31/12 2017 (cut off date), if Avastin monotherapy performes as historical average , then we have:

1) 18% of Avastin patients belonging to group 1 would be alive at the cut off, ie about 11 patients
2) 7% of Avastin patients belonging to group 2 would be alive at the cut off, ie about 2 patients
3) 10% of Avastin patients belonging to group 3 would be alive at the cut off , ie about 4 patients.

The total Avastin patients alive at the cut off date would be 17.
The total patients alive at the cut off are/were 64.
So the total VB111 patients alive at the cut off would be 47, 2.7 times Avastin patients.
Even if Avastin has performed slightly better than historical, let us say 21 patients alive at the cut off, we would still have 43 VB111 patients alive, ie doubling Avastin OS