The New CS Board

[Oddlot]

Gold and USD historically have a durable negative correlation. As the economy strengthens, consumers buy more goods, mostly imported, and the trade balance weakens as does the dollar. Therefor, predicting gold to not rise, or die, is similar to predicting the dollar will rise, and that the economy will fail. This will happen, but does not appear to be the current situation.

The long term trends are in favor of a declining USD, and LT pnf (weekly) point to a substantial decline in USD, and similarly a substantial upmove in gold.

I hold long USD, and trying to short GLD as only as a reaction to the very extended mkts and hope to reverse positions in several weeks.

Oddlot