Spokeshave -
I didn't think you had it in you. Bravo! Someone actually took the time to make an logical estimate. That doesn't mean it's entirely correct but you actually took a structured approach! I'm almost getting choked up...
Let's look at your analysis:
Intel Fabs. Good list but there are still some missing and some adjustments to be made. You left out Fab8 & Fab23, both 200mm fabs so add some capacity. One of those very large Fabs is currently offline production wise because 90nm product has not resulted in revenue as of this date. Subtract some capacity. Another one has not reached full capacity yet but is still ramping (you mentioned this). Another one is shutting down for 300mm conversion so it's ramping down, subtract some more capacity.
According to In-Stat/MDR, Intel should approximately double its wafer area production, versus 1Q01 production by the end of 2003, due to the rollout of 300mm wafer capability.
I'd like to see this quote. Do you have a link other than the one at the bottom of your post? It is very non specific (You have to pay big $$$ to get the full report). I suspect it includes 2 or 3 300mm fabs that are not currently online. #1 D1C is 90nm and not to be included in today's volume. #2 F24 comes online in early 2004 and is probably included in the In-Stat/MDR numbers. #3 D1D is not a production fab. 3 300mm fabs would be eqvilalent to about 7 200mm fabs. That could easily skew your numbers.
Since 1Q01, average die size has decreased about 20%
What do you base this on? Got a link? I hope you're not going by DT processors alone. How do the chipset die sizes compare to Q101? Intel makes 100s of millions of these each year and you need to factor that in. Also Intel is now the largest graphics supplier with their larger integrated north bridges. They weren't in Q1'01. You also have to adjust for very weak demand in '01. I see you mentioned this as well.
Throw in Madison and Gallatin with their very large die and you might be mistaken in your assumptions on average die size. How has Intel's volume in the PDA market changed? Networking, wireless, automotive? Are Flash die the same size as before?
I give you credit for being the only one to make a logical attempt to estimate capacity but I think the unknowns are far to great to draw any meaningful conclusions.
AI
