1H is typically slower than 2H - seasonality, Chinese New Year, Tagaan Tsar etc.
Very frustrating that transport capacity has capped exports to 300kt/m in 2H 17, but maybe not so much pressure in 1H 2018 on the border infrastructure and they can ramp everything up for mid-year.
Good news is production capacity and ramp up looks pretty reliable. Prices remain firm. Increased in house transport means logistics capacity can quickly be ramped up if border processing allows and can match.
1H 2017 included one off significant debt restructuring costs and stripping which chewed up cash that most expected to feed through into other working capital/overdue payables. My question to you is if we work on annualised exports of 3.6Mt and $65m/t ebitda margin and annualised ebitda of say $240m, what would you value MMC at?
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