Syncora Holdings Ltd. (fka SYCRF)

[mrholty]

That is true.
In the end I try to be conservative and $25M won't really matter.

Good News/Bad News - There isn't really much to move the needle going forward outside of some releases of reserves which this merger should allow.

American Roads will be the one big needle mover which should move the book value from $6ish to $9 hopefully + $1 for the NOLs gets me to $10. We are sitting at 50% of book similar to MBIA and Ambac but I think a sale would get us around book where MBIA and Ambac have a ton of junk still on their books which is why they deserve to trade at that level of book value.

What is frustrating is Macquarie/American Roads. I had built in $100M for Macquarie settlement but I thought it could be up to $200M - (Syncora's loss was $250M). But if you sell American Roads for say $400M vs a book value of $145(?) that you earn a gain of $255M - the courts would be hard pressed to say that Syncora has really been harmed.

I just thought the conversation on the quarterly call that they were happy with the initial bids and were moving forward was surprising. I would have assumed there would be no talk of any of that until settlement with Macquarie.

My last update to my model was this summer:
GreenPoint $250M($3/share)
Detroit $50M ($0.60 share)
Macquarie settlement $100 - $200M ($1.20-2.35/share)
American Roads $400-$145 = $255 ($3/share)
NOL - $150 ($1.75/share)
less losses (Puerto Rico, others) - ($1)
Total - Additional $8.55- $9.70
+ Current - $4.00 =$13-$14ish

Now:
I put Macquarie at $0
Greenpoint better $1
NOL down to $100M ($1.15/share)
and I am now at $6 ABV + only $3.75 = $9.75.

What do other people get?