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Post# of 252094
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Re: DewDiligence post# 216242

Wednesday, 12/27/2017 8:14:44 PM

Wednesday, December 27, 2017 8:14:44 PM

Post# of 252094

The article has too many flaws to enumerate. I tweeted about one them: The model's assumption that a typical drug experiences only six years of freedom from generic competition.



Yeah - I picked up on that one and, being the math geek that I am, I instantly saw that there was no way the revenue/EBIT/R&D curves extrapolate out to the linear decline predicted. Then, as you note, once examined the other flaws become obvious. Essentially the article was click-bait - but I found it interesting how many people found it worthy of non-critical comment. And ultimately part of the reason I posted a critique is because so many seemed to accept large pieces of it.

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