I am a mechanical Engineer, not a financial guy. I leave it to those who are, to evaluate the stock prices and the markets. There has been some discussion about de-watering and when it can start. In that area I can be of help. No doubt: it is crucial. That is made clear in the Feasibility Study and has been discussed at the town halls. I did find one paper on world Scandium supply. There was ONE mine in the Ukraine that did produce Scandium. It was roughly 2000 ft deep. It is currently shut down and will NOT be coming back into service BECAUSE: It is flooded.
This de-watering is a big project. Nicorp estimates right around 100 million just for de-watering. Big Al has made some comments re electrical equipment and I defer to him on that. Much of this stuff DOES NOT sit on a shelf ready for purchase. There is one good piece of news: OPPD (the local power supplier) is on top of this. A year or two ago they issued a contract to an Engineering firm. They did the design of the power line to the plant. It will be a 171kv line and come from a 171 Kv substation near Auburn. The routing, the design of the line, and most of specs needed for purchasing should be complete. It will require 171 Kv breakers and a 171Kv/13.8 Kv transformer. These are probably not off the shelf items (I'm sure Big Al would know.)
I ran some numbers re the pipe required. At the mine site they will need to run 8 inch pipe from 12 wells to the de-watering pond. This will probably be around 6 MILES of pipe. On full size flat bed semi trailers that will be about 6 or 7 full truck loads of pipe. That must all be purchased (if it is in stock,) shipped to the site, and buried. It will require around 800 joints that will each take an couple hours. That is the SMALL part of the project. The line to the river will be 30 miles of 36 inch pipe. That will be 30x5280/40= 3960 pieces of pipe 40 feet long. Assuming they stack it 9 feet wide on a trailer and use oversize load permits, that is 440 truck loads of pipe. With standard with loads it will be well over 500. That is a LOT of pipe to purchase and ship. It will require 3960 joints that will take a couple hours each. It all must be trenched and buried. The pumps for the wells MIGHT be in stock The pumps and motors for the pumping stations are probably not.
Page 434 in the revised study (PDF page 458) provides a schedule for some of these activities. It shows "Full Project Authorization" on October 29, 2017. It shows active de-watering BEGINS December 21, 2018. This is almost 14 months from full authorization to de-watering begins. IMHO that is a reasonable, if not somewhat optimistic, schedule. I would be quite amazed if they did better. We have not yet had "Full Authorization" and I cannot see how it could possibly happen before we have "full financing" or at least a large percentage of financing. If financing is announced in the next month or two, and things proceed smoothly, de-watering will not begin before Spring/Summer of 2019. This same schedule shows shaft sinking to BEGIN about 4 months after de-watering begins and de-watering below bottom of shaft to happen in a year after de-watering begins. "Shaft bottom excavation complete" and "first ore" are shown as about 10 months AFTER the bottom is de-watered.
I don't believe anyone has ever accused Niocorp of putting out excessively conservative schedules. I doubt that this schedule is either. There is no reason to believe this stuff will happen faster than these dates.
I am NOT trying to rain on anyone's parade. I am incredibly optimistic about Nicorp. But, this is a BIG, complicated project that will not happen overnight. AND, will not start till financing is announced. JMHO
AI
