After reading Sleek's Thesis Again
Here is what we all have to look forward to in 2018...
The first catalyst is coming up this week!
And it looks like the catalysts are there for VATE to run ALL YEAR LONG in 2018!!!
THE 2018 CATALYSTS
JANUARY 2018
California will begin sales of recreational marijuana on the first day of the new year
Amplitude:
Positive
Duration:
Long
Significance:
Major – 9
Direct Catalyst:
California is the biggest state in the union and the 6th largest economy in the world
California’s native population is 40M and annual tourists number 270M
Even just with medical sales only, they currently generate the most cannabis revenue of any state at $2 Billion
California marijuana revenue expected to grow to $5 Billion next year, taking national sales from $7B in 2017 to $10B in 2018
We’ve recently seen the Canadian pot stocks enter a mania, in part due to upcoming adult use legalization in July 2018, and California’s cannabis market is even larger
Indirect Catalyst:
Loudly signals the marijuana revolution is too strong to stop now
Huge momentum booster to kick off the new year after a dreadful 2017
Here is what we all have to look forward to in 2018...
The first catalyst is coming up this week!
And it looks like the catalysts are there for VATE to run ALL YEAR LONG in 2018!!!
THE 2018 CATALYSTS
JANUARY 2018
California will begin sales of recreational marijuana on the first day of the new year
Amplitude:
Positive
Duration:
Long
Significance:
Major – 9
Direct Catalyst:
California is the biggest state in the union and the 6th largest economy in the world
California’s native population is 40M and annual tourists number 270M
Even just with medical sales only, they currently generate the most cannabis revenue of any state at $2 Billion
California marijuana revenue expected to grow to $5 Billion next year, taking national sales from $7B in 2017 to $10B in 2018
We’ve recently seen the Canadian pot stocks enter a mania, in part due to upcoming adult use legalization in July 2018, and California’s cannabis market is even larger
Indirect Catalyst:
Loudly signals the marijuana revolution is too strong to stop now
Huge momentum booster to kick off the new year after a dreadful 2017
Here is what we all have to look forward to in 2018...
The first catalyst is coming up this week!
And it looks like the catalysts are there for VATE to run ALL YEAR LONG in 2018!!!
THE 2018 CATALYSTS
JANUARY 2018
California will begin sales of recreational marijuana on the first day of the new year
Amplitude:
Positive
Duration:
Long
Significance:
Major – 9
Direct Catalyst:
California is the biggest state in the union and the 6th largest economy in the world
California’s native population is 40M and annual tourists number 270M
Even just with medical sales only, they currently generate the most cannabis revenue of any state at $2 Billion
California marijuana revenue expected to grow to $5 Billion next year, taking national sales from $7B in 2017 to $10B in 2018
We’ve recently seen the Canadian pot stocks enter a mania, in part due to upcoming adult use legalization in July 2018, and California’s cannabis market is even larger
Indirect Catalyst:
Loudly signals the marijuana revolution is too strong to stop now
Huge momentum booster to kick off the new year after a dreadful 2017
Blatantly exposes the raw hypocrisy of the largest state in the union selling a federally illegal substance
The media is going to have a field day with this hypocrisy
Expect to see editorials in major newspapers around the country supporting a rescheduling of marijuana
Bigtime national media coverage on television, radio, internet, social media, blogs, forums will further the discussion and debate around rescheduling
International media coverage
Banking solutions should move to the forefront of discussion as well
Increases pressure on Congress to move cannabis to Schedule II
JANUARY/FEBRUARY 2018
Vermont legalizes recreational marijuana via legislature
Amplitude:
Positive
Duration:
Short
Significance:
Minor -- 2
Direct Catalyst:
First non-ballot recreational cannabis legalization bill gets signed into law
This bill is for non-commercial legalization, so it permits home grows and possession but not storefronts
The bill permitting commercial cultivation, production and dispensaries is likely to pass in 2nd half of the year
Indirect Catalyst:
Any historical event generates media attention and discussion
Always most difficult to be the first to do something new or different
reaks down barriers and paves the way for other east coast states -- New Jersey, Delaware, Connecticut, Rhode Island -- to follow suit in 2018
MARCH/APRIL/MAY 2018
New Jersey legalizes recreational marijuana via legislature within first 100 days of Governor Phil Murphy’s tenure
Amplitude:
Positive
Duration:
Long
Significance:
MAJOR with a capital MJ -- 9
Direct:
Unless Delaware beats it to the punch, New Jersey would become the first state to pass commercial recreational legalization of cannabis through the legislature.
Cultivation, production and dispensary licenses are included in bill
Indirect:
Proves that Massachusetts was no fluke, now two bigtime northeast states are full-on legal
New Jersey would handily become the 2nd largest state by population to legalize adult use MJ
Has great potential to trigger a state legislative tsunami of recreational cannabis in 2018 as Rhode Island, Connecticut, and Delaware follow suit -- all three could legalize by year end, with Delaware being the favorite to be next
New Jersey and New York are attached at the hip and the discussion around recreational legalization in New York’s legislature will increase significantly (though I don’t expect NY to pass recreational until 2019)
The close geographic proximity to the financial epicenter of America will attract serious money interested in investing in New Jersey MJ
The population density of the NY/NJ metropolitan area is massive and citizens from surrounding states (New York, Connecticut, Pennsylvania) would make the size of the NJ cannabis market absolutely enormous – this also incentivizes those neighboring states to get their asses in gear on legislation lest they lose out on tax money to Jersey cannabis
Takes the baton from California and intensifies the drumbeat of pressure on Congress to reschedule cannabis
MAY/JUNE/JULY 2018
Epidiolex (cannabis-derived CBD) receives FDA Approval
Amplitude:
Positive
Duration:
Long
Significance:
MAJOR – 9.5
Direct:
GW Pharma’s epilepsy drug has the experimental data required to support its approval
Would become the first actual cannabis-formulated medication to receive FDA approval
Essentially 100% cannabis-derived cannabidiol (CBD), which is currently Schedule I
FDA indication for Lennox-Gastaut and Dravet Syndrome
Application submitted on 10/30/17
Indirect:
If FDA approves Epidiolex, by law the FDA/DEA will have 90 days to reschedule it.
GW Pharma is requesting Schedule IV so that is likely what will happen.
The approval and rescheduling of cannabis-derived CBD means that for the first time the federal government is admitting that CBD has medical value.
Because there are three different synthetic THC drugs that are currently FDA approved (Marinol, Syndros, Cesamet), the government has already basically admitted that THC has medical value.
Logic would follow that if CBD and THC admittedly have therapeutic value, how can the cannabis plant remain on Schedule I?
We already know that logic doesn’t motivate the FDA and DEA when it comes to the issue of rescheduling cannabis – the former is controlled by big pharma and the latter is law enforcement, two parties that stand to be hurt financially if cannabis was rescheduled.
So I don’t expect the FDA or DEA to reschedule cannabis.
However, what I do anticipate happening is that the gargantuan hypocrisy of the situation will lead to the generation of enormous media attention and public pressure to reschedule cannabis.
The public pressure will be transmitted into political pressure on Congress to reschedule cannabis as a Schedule II substance.
If Congress has not already rescheduled cannabis before Epidiolex attains FDA approval, or before Epidiolex (CBD) is rescheduled, then I anticipate that Congress will reschedule cannabis within 1-3 months of Epidiolex’s (CBD) rescheduling, most likely in the late summer or early fall.
The bottom line is the minute Epidiolex (CBD) receives FDA approval, the media attention and discussion revolving around cannabis’ imminent rescheduling will be the biggest single catalyst to hit the sector since Colorado began sales of recreational marijuana in January 2014.
So months before cannabis is actually rescheduled by Congress, the discussion around this topic will serve as an indirect catalyst to light up the MJ sector.
JULY 2018
Canada legalizes recreational marijuana and begins sales
Amplitude:
Positive
Duration:
Medium
Significance:
Major – 7
Direct:
Federal legalization of recreational cannabis in Canada is a harbinger of what’s to come for America in the next 24-36 months
Lays out a roadmap for federal legalization of medical and recreational cannabis in America
Normalizes adult use cannabis to those in government and society who still require convincing
Indirect:
If Congress has not yet rescheduled marijuana, the pressure on them to do so will continue to increase
Canada makes America’s perspective on the issue of cannabis look very antiquated
Establishes a blueprint that America can use for eventual federal legalization of recreational cannabis in 2020-2021
JULY 2018
Massachusetts begins sales of recreational marijuana
Amplitude:
Positive
Duration:
Long
Significance:
Major – 7
Direct:
The first northeast state to sell recreational marijuana in dispensaries will be a huge news story on the east coast.
Allows nearby states with legalized medical marijuana to observe firsthand that adult use cannabis sales will not destroy society via reefer madness.
Indirect:
Encourages NY, CT, RI, PA to hop on board the adult use MJ bandwagon
Until another northeast state starts selling recreational cannabis in dispensaries, Boston may become the Denver of the northeast as people from nearby states travel to purchase cannabis
Makes the tax revenue argument for adult use legalization more effective
AUGUST/SEPTEMBER/OCTOBER 2018
Congress Reschedules Cannabis as a Schedule II Drug
Amplitude:
POSITIVE
Duration:
Long
Significance:
MAJOR – 10 – This is a SUPERCATALYST
Direct:
The cumulative pressure from the biggest state in the union and the first northeast metropolis state starting sales of recreational marijuana (CA and MA, respectively), the first state in America to pass commercial recreational marijuana through the legislature (NJ) and the FDA approval of cannabis-derived CBD (Epidiolex), all occurring within the first half of 2018, ratchets up the political pressure for Congress to finally face the music and solve the hypocrisy of fraudulently maintaining cannabis as a Schedule I Drug.
The vote isn’t even close.
De facto federal legalization of medical marijuana.
Indirect:
This is the single most important event in the history of cannabis in America.
If you missed out on 2014’s Mania, you will have another chance to experience what the most extreme stage in the MJ Sector Mania Cycle feels like.
This is MANIC MANIA.
Enjoy it.
This is one of only 2 remaining SUPERCATALYSTS in the MJ sector, with the last one being federal legalization (There were three, but Colorado starting recreational sales on 1/1/14 was the first)
The number of ramifications is astounding and I can’t possibly cover them all, so I will touch on some of the most important.
Rescheduling cannabis as a Schedule II Drug will pave the way for banking to open up, as cannabis will no longer be considered federally illegal.
This is great for the industry itself, as now companies won’t have to stash hoards of cash in safes any longer.
It will also change the game in terms of access to capital.
Banks and other financial institutions will now be able to loan money to aid the growth of the industry.
Investment capital will flood the sector, as cannabis now becomes “safe” with the chance of any significant federal interference now extinguished
If there ever was a green light for an industry this is it.
Marijuana stocks will go vertical and it will feel like 2014 again.
Many will shift focus to not if, but when marijuana stocks will be allowed to uplist to Nasdaq – my guess is somewhere between June-September 2019
And now that medical marijuana is no longer federally illegal, the industry will naturally begin talking about the final SUPERCATALYST – federal legalization of recreational marijuana, the granddaddy of discussion catalysts.
NOVEMBER 2018
Michigan, Ohio and possibly Arizona on ballot for recreational marijuana
Amplitude:
Positive
Duration:
Short
Significance:
Major – 6
Direct:
Michigan and Ohio pass recreational legalization by the people
If Arizona gathers enough signatures in time, it will pass there as well
Indirect:
This would ordinarily be a pretty big deal, since the Midwest is currently a recreational cannabis desert, and in a single election, two pretty large states would put an end to that.
But everything is about timing.
And everything is relative.
After rescheduling, most catalysts will likely seem a lot less exciting than they may look on paper.
If cannabis has not been rescheduled by Congress before the elections, and Democrats win a congressional
majority, then rescheduling is likely to happen quickly – so that would certainly increase the significance and strengthen the catalyst of the 2018 elections apart from MI/OH/AZ
Miscellaneous catalysts:
Delaware, Connecticut, Rhode Island and Vermont could all legalize recreational marijuana via legislature at different times throughout the year, though I expect the majority to take place in the 2nd half.
As single catalysts, none of them can compare to New Jersey, though I think Delaware is pretty significant because of the proximity to Washington DC, and Connecticut is important because it borders New York -- and if neighboring New Jersey and Connecticut pass recreational marijuana via legislature in 2018, the discussion of New York joining the gang will be pretty loud.
THE UNIQUENESS OF THE 2018 MARIJUANA MANIA
The marijuana sector is clearly a catalyst driven sector.
We have seen two manias thus far and both were triggered by only a single catalyst (Colorado becoming the first state to sell recreational marijuana in 2014 and CA/MA/NV/AZ/ME on the ballot for recreational marijuana in 2016)
Both manias lasted only 2-3 months and ended due to the occurrence of a negative catalyst (SEC halts and Trump/Sessions/Christie), coupled with the fact that there wasn’t a second positive catalyst in the near future to counterbalance the negative catalyst.
2018 is a calendar year that is full of potential major catalysts.
Real gamechangers.
And the first SUPERCATALYST since January 2014.
California selling recreational marijuana.
New Jersey passing recreational marijuana through its legislature.
Epidiolex (CBD) receiving FDA approval.
Cannabis being rescheduled by Congress.
That is really a GRAND SLAM of catalysts.
And in addition, Canada will legalize recreational marijuana and begin sales, Massachusetts will begin recreational sales, and Michigan/Ohio will become the first Midwest states to legalize the plant for adult use. And Delaware, Connecticut and Rhode Island may join the gang via legislature.
So the number of bigtime catalysts makes 2018 a completely different ballgame than 2014 or 2016.
The significant catalysts are also spread out throughout the calendar year.
Broken down into quarters, California is Q1, New Jersey is Q2, Epidiolex approval and CBD rescheduling is Q2/Q3, Massachusetts is Q3, Canada is Q3, Congress rescheduling cannabis is Q3/Q4, Michigan/Ohio/Arizona is Q4.
And remember, the date of the catalyst is not the start date of the catalyst’s effect on the marijuana sector. Discussion and media coverage surrounding catalysts typically becomes louder 1-2 months beforehand and stays louder for several months afterwards.
Indirect (discussion/media attention) effects should cause a continual stream of positive sentiment from January through December.
It really does seem like we have a very legitimate chance for an entire year of mania in the MJ sector.
Happy Holidays Everyone
God Bless
$VATE L & S
AI
