Delcath Systems Inc (DCTH)

[Rapture2020]

First, I was wrong. Off by 37 million OS puts me on the bridge with the Captain of the Exxon Valdez, downing bottles of Patron Silver while freebasing.


Second, at least I now believe I have the dilution rate nailed down at between 37%-38% of the total daily volume. Here goes:

Current OS 69M; Debt cleared: $8.6M; $1.9M balance.

Assuming a constant vwap of $.054 and dilution at between 37%-38% of the total daily trading volume, here is my revised estimate:


Scenario 1. 11.5M daily volume @ vwap $.054. Debt cleared 22 Dec w/100.5M shares.

Scenario 2. 15M daily volume @ vwap $.054. Debt cleared 21 Dec w/102M shares.

Scenario 3. 20M daily volume @ vwap $.054. Debt cleared first 2 hours of trading 19 December w/100.3M shares.

Scenario 4. 40M volume @ vwap $.054. Debt cleared first 3 hours of trading Friday, 15 December w/103M shares.

Scenario 5. Positive Interim Safety Analysis Report released. 70M Volume @ vwap $.12 and debt cleared tomorrow w/OS at 85M. Hey, I guy can dream.

Every price point above $.054 reduces the OS by some multiple to under 100M, every price point below $.054 increases the OS by some multiple over 100M.

The one very good takeaway is that based on the current burn rate and price stabilization, DCTH is going to have an OS under 100M by the time this is all said and done, imo.

There. That's it. I am never guessing again.