Friday, December 08, 2017 10:36:41 AM
LUX makes a good point. Straight from Wikipedia: "Futility is not as widely recognized as safety and benefit, but actually can be the most common reason to stop a trial. As an example, suppose a trial is one-half completed, but the experimental arm and the control arm have nearly identical results. It's likely in no one's interest to have this trial continue. It is extremely unlikely that the trial, should it continue to its normal end, would have the statistical evidence needed to convince a regulatory agency to approve the treatment. The company sponsoring the study could save money for other projects by abandoning this trial. Also, current and potential trial participants could be freed to take other treatments, rather than this experimental treatment which is unlikely to benefit them."
The trial should be half way finished. I say this, based on a trial with 50% Multiline patients.
The independent committee could have said "we don't see any point continuing this trial" but they didn't.
If this is true, then will the conclusion show that it is 10% better than the standard of care?
The share price will get hammered, if we don't get anything from the arbitration. It is a risk, and one that comes before the trial results.
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