Market Strategies

[lentinman]

LOUSY PREDICTION! PART 2:

At this point Brinker's entire fundamental premise that I based my prediction on (though he did not agree that the cyclical bull had been reached – and still doesn’t – is now essentially debatable. The premise is that we are in a secular bear market for "8-20" years beginning January of 2000. No secular bear market would allow for new highs 6 years into an 8-20 year period or else it could hardly be called a "secular bear market" - at least in my opinion.

However, the DOW is probably not the index to use for determining (or confirming) a secular bear market. It should be the S&P 500 - which is still miles (-14%) below the record of 1553 (1339 now). And, the S&P 500 is what Brinker most closely follows, though his historical analysis is predicated upon the DOW - and all historical analysis of previous cyclical bull markets within secular bear markets have been done with respect to the DOW. Thus, at least to some small degree, the entire secular bear market (as defined by Brinker) must be called into question with today's new DOW high.

In any event, on March 10, 2005, the high for the DOW reached 10,905. Today, it peaked at 11,776. That is 8% above my predicted peak - and despite recent underpeformance of VMC stocks, clearly over that time, VMC stocks significantly outperformed the DOW.

Len