Since I'm sure there are a ton of ppl out there like me who are just trying not to admit how nervous we are about the q3 results / shareholder structure I just want to toss out a quick and dirty valuation. We're gunna do a worst case scenario here for fun - let's assume we fully convert that loan and therefore issue that 600m + the already outstanding 494m (call it 500m for easy math and again worst case), gives us a total share count of 1.1bn. Let's gross that up another 300m for kicks assuming some crazy amount of dilution, that gives us total shares of 1.4bn (they have a limit of 1bn so this can't happen but again worst case let's roll with it). Now I've seen rev multiples as high as 30x (there are higher but aren't very good comparables) but we'll use a 5x rev to be uber conservative / worst case here. So rev this year is likely to hit 12.5m or higher - 12.5m * 5 for rev multiplier, you get fair value market cap of 62.5m. Divide that by the 1.4bn shares you get a fair value of $0.045. This valuation however is all backward looking. Most valuations for growth companies is semi forward looking, either using 6months past mix with 6 month est, or a simple 12 month burn rate. So let's do the blended next. Here's a quick estimation I put together:
Monthly Growth
April 1,000,000 -
May 1,100,000 10%
June 1,113,000 1%
July 1,460,000 31%
August 1,750,000 20%
September 1,700,000 -3%
October 1,353,833 -
November 1,489,217 10%
December 1,506,817 1%
January 1,976,597 31%
February 2,369,208 20%
March 2,301,517 -3%
Sales 19,120,188 -
It's copying in here strange, but April to August are what POTN reported, October is the average of those months, I then reused the same growth rates by month to grow from the October average through March. That mix of 6 past months with 6 future months leads to a rev of 19m - so 19 * 5 = 95m fair value divided by 1.4bn shares gives a fair value share price of $0.068. Now let's get even a little more forcasty (made that up right now) and just take September rev of 1.7m and multiply by 12 assuming a plateaued run rate for a yearly rev figure of 20.4m * 5x = 102m divided by the 1.4bn and you get a fair value of $0.073 a share.
The reason I'm showing this is first, because I eat this stuff up and am a super jabrony, second to address share structure concerns where even in the absolutely worst case where somehow this company has 1.4bn shares which is 400m more than they are allowed to have according to their financial statements we are essentially still undervalued because the company continues to show insane growth on the top and bottom lines of their statements.
I think they come out with 650m shares which puts fair value using historical pricing around ((12.5m * 5) / 650m) = $0.096 which is 60% higher than the current .06 we have been seeing. Cheers to the longs!
AI
