August 24, 2003 E-mail story Print
THE TIMES POLL
Bustamante Has Big Lead on Schwarzenegger
But nearly half say their choice for a successor to Davis, if he is ousted, may change. Predicting who will turn out for the election is difficult.
By Mark Z. Barabak, Times Staff Writer
Lt. Gov. Cruz Bustamante holds a wide lead over Arnold Schwarzenegger in the race to succeed Gov. Gray Davis, according to a new Los Angeles Times poll, which finds the Republican vote splintered among several GOP contenders.
As the sole major Democrat running to replace Davis — should the incumbent be ousted Oct. 7 — Bustamante enjoys the support of 35% of likely voters, the poll found.
Schwarzenegger received the support of 22%, followed by three fellow Republicans: state Sen. Tom McClintock of Thousand Oaks with 12%, businessman Peter V. Ueberroth with 7% and Bill Simon Jr. — the GOP's 2002 gubernatorial nominee — with 6%.
Simon abruptly quit the race Saturday, after the poll was completed. He said that "there are too many Republicans" running and expressed concern that his candidacy would undercut GOP efforts to oust Davis and replace the Democrat with one of their own.
Simon's earlier failure to beat Davis apparently took a toll on his repeat run; nearly one in five likely voters said they would be less likely to support Simon because of last year's loss.
Three other gubernatorial contenders who have won prominent mention lag far behind the major-party hopefuls, according to the poll. Arianna Huffington, who is running a nonpartisan campaign, received the support of just 3% of likely voters, and the Green Party's Peter Camejo drew 1%, tying him with Hustler magazine publisher Larry Flynt.
Under the idiosyncratic rules that govern the recall vote, all 135 candidates from assorted parties or no party are listed on the same ballot. The candidate who gets the most votes will become governor — if Davis is kicked out, which will be the first issue on the ballot.
The poll, completed Thursday night, found that 50% of likely voters favored recalling Davis and 45% were opposed, with 5% undecided.
But the contest remains unsettled, and polling is a particular challenge in this environment, given the special nature of the election and the way the campaign has been collapsed into a relatively brief, two-month time frame. California has never before witnessed a gubernatorial recall election. Voter turnout will be critical to the outcome, yet it is difficult to predict who will cast ballots. The figures in the Times poll assume a disproportionately high Republican turnout.
The poll suggested a great deal of fluidity: Although views on the recall effort itself were quite fixed, 46% of likely voters said they could change their minds about whom to support between now and Oct. 7.
Democrats were more certain of their candidate choices, with six in 10 saying they had definitely made up their minds, compared with 46% of the likely Republican voters.
Despite the smorgasbord of gubernatorial hopefuls, likely voters do not appear terribly enamored of their options. Of the leading contenders to replace Davis, only Bustamante and Ueberroth are seen in a largely positive light, though just half of likely voters indicated that they knew enough about Ueberroth to make a decision. Others were even less known or, in the case of Flynt, Huffington and Simon, seen in mostly negative terms.
Schwarzenegger has a mixed image among likely voters, with 46% saying they have a favorable impression of him and 44% an unfavorable one.
Much of his campaign strategy is based on his cross-over appeal to non-Republican voters, given his comparatively moderate positions on issues such as gun control, abortion and gay rights. But less than two weeks into his first run for elected office, Schwarzenegger has already become a politically polarizing figure.
Roughly seven in 10 likely Democratic voters have an unfavorable impression of the action-movie star, while the same number of likely Republican voters expressed a favorable view.
The actor won the support of 39% of likely Republican voters, 20% of independents and 7% of Democrats polled. McClintock received 21% of the Republican respondents' backing, Simon got 12% and Ueberroth 10%.
Overall, 50% of likely voters see Schwarzenegger as a political moderate. Twenty-seven percent view him as a conservative and 11% as a liberal; the remainder were not certain or declined to say.
The Times Poll, directed by Susan Pinkus, interviewed 1,351 registered voters between Aug. 16 and Aug. 21. Among them were 801 voters deemed likely to cast ballots in the recall election. The margin of sampling error for likely voters is plus or minus 3 percentage points.
The survey suggested that, for all the novelty of the campaign and the unconventional backgrounds of many of those running, no candidate has yet captured the imagination of California voters.
Bustamante, serving his second term as lieutenant governor, is vying to become the first Latino elected California's governor in modern times. He is pursuing a dual strategy, urging a "no" vote on the recall question but asking voters to support him in the event that Davis is thrown out of office.
Asked if Bustamante's candidacy made them more likely to go to the polls Oct. 7, an overwhelmingly majority of likely voters — including Democrats — said it did not. Even his fellow Latinos were not dramatically more inspired: 75% said Bustamante's running made them no more likely to take part in the recall vote.
Overall, the lieutenant governor was chosen by 65% of the Democratic respondents, one in five independent voters and 8% of Republicans.
Fifty-one percent of likely Latino voters surveyed backed Bustamante, 13% chose McClintock and 12% favored Schwarzenegger.
Among union members, a crucial part of the Democratic Party base, Bustamante was receiving 39% support, with Schwarzenegger at 18% and McClintock at 15%.
For all the star power the actor brings to the race, Schwarzenegger — like Bustamante — has not made voters notably more inclined to take part in the election. About seven in 10 likely voters surveyed said the movie star's run made no difference in their intentions to vote, a finding that was constant across party lines, regardless of political philosophy.
The poll suggested that Schwarzenegger, who launched the first paid advertising of the recall campaign Wednesday, still has a selling job to do with many voters who doubt his credibility as a potential governor.
While a little more than half — 56% — of likely voters said they believed that the first-time candidate knew "some" or "a lot" about the issues facing California, more than a third — 36% — said he didn't know much at all about such issues.
One such skeptic was Linda Lackey, a 55-year-old insurance agent in Downey.
"He may care about certain things, he may care about children and stuff, but he really has no background in this type of thing," she said in a follow-up interview. "And he's very quiet about what he actually thinks and what he plans on doing. He doesn't put his ideas out well."
Lackey, a Republican, said she was leaning toward the more conservative McClintock. "He's in government already and seems knowledgeable," she said.
Schwarzenegger has made his political-newcomer status a central part of his campaign, vowing to "clean house" in Sacramento if elected.
But that promise is met with widespread skepticism: Nearly six in 10 likely voters predicted "politics as usual" if Schwarzenegger became governor, while just about a third said they expected that he could rein in the power of "special interest groups."
Former Gov. Pete Wilson is a key advisor to Schwarzenegger, having urged him into the recall election and serving as his campaign co-chairman. Many of Wilson's former aides are involved in the actor's effort, including Wilson's ex-chief of staff, advertising consultant and press secretary.
Two weeks ago, Wilson created a stir by revealing Schwarzenegger's support for Proposition 187, the anti-illegal-immigration initiative pushed by Wilson and passed by voters in 1994. Analysts were split over the potential effect. Some suggested the disclosure would help Schwarzenegger by shoring up his Republican support; others said it would hurt him among Latino voters.
Both assessments appear correct.
Overall, just about half of likely voters said a candidate's position on Proposition 187 would make no difference in how they voted. But 34% of Republicans said it would make them more likely to support a candidate.
Forty-two percent of Latinos said it would make them less likely. Of that 42%, the overwhelmingly majority opposed efforts to kick Davis out of office.
Jill Darling Richardson, associate director of the Times Poll, and Claudia Vaughn, the poll's data management supervisor, contributed to this report.
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