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Re: BigB post# 40167

Thursday, 09/28/2006 10:47:20 AM

Thursday, September 28, 2006 10:47:20 AM

Post# of 64738
BigB – the nice thing about people making predictions on this board is that the predictions are documented. If you objectively review the predictions you will find Tibbcat has a 50% accuracy at best – or about the same as flipping a coin - and in fact if you were to put a reasonable time frame on most of his predictions – like assuming the stock would hit a particular price within say one month instead of open ended targets like cygx will hit $1.80 someday which is essentially meaningless - you will find that his accuracy is much lower. His advise would be more credible if he had told people to sell at $1.50 rather than continue to suggest that the stock would hit $1.80 and then trying to defend “new” bottoms all the way down.

Here’s an example from the end of June

>minor resistance at $1.10, $1.20 and $1.34.

>then its clear to $1.54... the old high.

>the 5 year log based chart indicates a large rising wedge. a >bullish pattern that targets $2 before resistance.

If you don’t put a timetable on this one it might still come true but it certainly didn’t suggest selling and buying back in the .70s which is where we ended up without first bouncing back to $1.54 or $1.34 or $1.20 ...

Charting may be helpful in cases of panic or euphoria induced short-term overreaction where stocks are temporarily driven more by perception than fundamentals but for long term investing, focus more on the company’s progress toward their business objectives than the last “classic” pattern someone thinks they see in a graph.

I agree that he has equal right to post for those who enjoy this stuff but I also agree with those who feel that he should be a little more humble before accusing other posters of not “understanding” how this all works.
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