Aerie Pharmaceuticals Inc. (AERI)

[Johnny_C]

Just a few months to go for the big news. I have been an Aeri supporter for almost 2 years. Bought at 10 sold at 32, rebought at 17 sold at average of 62.

Entered very small at 59.

What is problematic is the lack of deals and mergers being done. They look to have 2 superstar blockbusters and the stock may very well be 80 to 100 if a buyout were to occur.

That is less likely though as they are hiring their own sales force. Not only does that present the problem of salesman having a one trick pony product for now, but they have zero experience running a sales team. Even hiring experienced people from big pharma is not encouraging as they are use to having a portfolio of drugs, established relationships and a huge marketing budget. There is a possibility of the product having a label as well.

This is not a Gilead situation where a drug takes over a market immediately. Most small biotech’s lose money for at least 3 years, and lose a lot of money. Aeri could bled 100’s if millions of dollars before it reaches us profitable, and the over under on pivoting to profits is 3.5 years.

The upside is that Aeri could be a billion dollar drug, or more. We bought Aeri for turnaround and buyout just like rite aid, Salix, Receptos, Sarepta BMY.

Aeri seemed a perfect fit for AGN, but it is not looking like that now. Tax reform doesn’t benefit AGN. Maybe they will get bought out but not optimistic at this point.