NewAge Inc (fka NBEVQ) (NBEVQ)

[NewJerichoMan]

We'll find out soon enough if yesterday is a reversal or a head fake.

On a side note, Maxim lowered our price target from $7.50 to $6 but reiterated buy rating.

Missed 3Qs in a row so they had to downgrade the PT to save face.

Due to the 3Q17 miss and our expectations, we are lowering our 2017, 2018, and 2019 revenue estimates to $55.5M, $72.2M, $83.5M, from $62.4M, $83.6M, and $96.7M. As a result of these lower revenues, we are also lowering our 2017, 2018, and 2019 GAAP EPS estimates to $0.02, $0.08, and $0.17, from $0.10, $0.19, and $0.27.

Maxim attributes the miss to the yet-to-be-stabilized sales of Coco and Marley. Their miss was $3.8M on the topline. That's 20%. Savings / synergies in the cost structures weren't realized either.

I think we can surmise that Xing was also part of that decline. We know distribution grew 6% and Maxim puts that at $30M+ in its initial report. Bucha, we can't be sure, but it's probably growing. Aspen Pure is definitely growing because of APP. Those 3 are not enough, obviously, to offset the other decliners.

Maxim's Q4 estimate is now $14.6M, which would equate to $55.5M (GAAP) for 2017. Pro forma for 2017 would be around ~$60M. For reference, the pro forma of the entire company, as currently constituted, was ~$70M in 2016, about a 15% decline YoY.