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Wednesday, November 15, 2017 7:04:59 AM
The issue is simply when. I don't mind if it takes longer. The company will be huge. I just mean that judging by the current situation, it doesn't look like it will be this year. And if it's not this year, they will need to raise funds by selling common stock before January 2018, when the runway runs out.
If they commercialize it this year, then obviously we're good to go. Or even if they fill the preferred shares, then they won't need to sell common stock. But will they do that this year?
What are the signs pointing to that?
The reason I assumed that the South America trip will be long (like, up to a month) is because of the reference to "7-8 prospective customers in three South American countries." Almost certainly these are Venezuela, Colombia/Ecuador, and Brazil (I would guess the first three and not Brazil) .
Probably a month was an overestimate because I was feeling pessimistic about anything imminent. If there was one meeting every day, that's 8 days. Then departure and arrival days, +2-3. Then travel days between countries, +2-3. So it's between 11 and 14 days assuming that no days are wasted. If you add a day or two here and there, then it's 16 or so. So, two weeks.
Anyway, the reasoning I had for assuming that because of that trip, there is no deal this year, is mainly because of timing: if you are nailing down a lease deal or financing for the build-out, do you take a two week trip for new prospects? That does not make sense to me.
Can anyone explain how that makes sense, and how they could be working on anything imminent in terms of a lease or financing arrangement for the preferred shares if they are about to take off to South America?
Just does not compute.
Happy to be shown to be wrong. Only too happy. I still think a deal is coming and will be done by mid next year. But that is six months later than I was initially expecting something.
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