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Re: umiak post# 3338

Tuesday, 11/14/2017 9:16:25 AM

Tuesday, November 14, 2017 9:16:25 AM

Post# of 3668
I wish everyone well here, and glad to see the stock up in pre-mkt. Folks should read Amit Ghate's article from a few weeks ago at S.Alpha that rebuts Henrik Alex's bearish piece from some weeks prior, which criticized SINO's shrinking profit margins.

Yes, net earnings are up, but f.d. sharecount is also up, 22% y/y, which is why EPS for Q1 has dropped to 0.07 compared to last year's comp qtr EPS of 0.08. As a result, the ttm EPS has dropped a penny from 0.41 to 0.40.

Last year's Q2'17 was 0.11 EPS as folks may recall, so if SINO's Q2 doesn't match that, the trailing EPS will drop further.

CEO Lei Cao is sounding a little more bullish on the press release about growing shareholder value over the future quarters. Meanwhile, there are obviously some growing pains as their costs for ramping up the newer business segments in the USA have shrunk their margins. I'm hoping it won't take too many more weeks or months before margins improve.

There was never any good reason for SINO's P/E valuation to drop so hard in Spring and Summer from the upper 20s down to the 7 or 8 P/E level after those stellar quarters reporting EPS of 0.11 and 0.14. The company has clearly shown itself to be a solid generator of revenues, and i would think the current trailing EPS of 0.40 for the past 4 quarters deserves a P/E of at least 10 or 11. That would soar the shareprice to $4 or well over $4, but will that happen?

The crucial question will be whether there are enough buyers who believe that last quarter and this quarter just reported (ending Sep. 30, 2017) are just temporary dips in profitability before SINO rips in coming quarters (if not Q2, then Q3 and Q4). If there's not enough buying interest, then i fear any rallies will be capped once again by the big "run it and dump it" gang.