Apple Inc (AAPL)

[fmikehugo]

08:43 AAPL Apple Computer: Checks suggest strong notebook demand but just ok iPod demand; raising Mac and overall ests - Thomas Weisel (77.61 )

Thomas Weisel's checks suggest strong demand for INTC-based notebooks as checks show 50% of Mac buyers are switchers and that there is quite strong demand for MacBook. Firm's checks also indicate a healthy demand/supply balance and availability for most products, thus AAPL should be in position to deliver upside relative to firm's original ests for notebooks.

Firm believes the real key to the AAPL story in the next 12 months will be the actual Mac units sold, as iPod momentum is likely to fade. Firm believes iPod checks show less excitement related to new products compared to previous launches. Firm believes the iPod nano remains a dominant MP3 player but checks indicated less excitement for the new colored nano and 8GB nano and expects results roughly in-line with their expectations of 8.6 mln units for the current quarter and 14.7 mln for Dec.

Firm raises ests on Mac rev from a 24.9% y/y increase to a 31.1% y/y increase and believes this could mean that AAPL might post numbers above current Street est, but notes that expectations appear to be increasing.