It was a solid quarter, and the numbers were in line with my expectations across the board, so I’m not disappointed. It’s good to see 20+ new customers and programs added and biopharma revenue (which increased 76% YoY) continue to grow. For those expecting more of a quarter over quarter growth, there is a quarter revenue lag, so the trials added in the 2nd quarter don’t show up until the 4th, but many of these are small, phase I trials so it may be only a small bump. I also doubt that Novartis started dosing many patients before the end of the quarter since it wasn’t approved until August 30th.
Analyst's consensus revenue estimates for the full year are around $11M-12M, but don't include any revenue from Novartis and Kite. My estimate is ~$4M next quarter due to the contracts signed in Q2 and a small boost from Novartis and Kite commercialization ($500k), so ~$12.5M for the year. Bottom line is that CYRX is a longer-term play (2-3 years) and for those expecting to see that hockey stick earnings growth in the near-term, you will continue to be disappointed. Unless of course, the inevitable buyout happens.
On a personal note: I’ve severely underestimated my taxes this year and have almost $100k in profit in my taxable account just from the KITE buyout. I’ll take it, but I prefer to manage my profits a little better for tax purposes rather than getting slammed with a big tax bite from a buyout. As the saying goes; be careful what you wish for.
One more thought: I’m taking advantage of the price decline. I think it’s very likely that CYRX will be double digits next year, and I can’t think of another stock that will double within a year with as little risk. I had a full position in the $3-4 range but now have some extra trading shares and I’m looking for more. On my recommendation, my father bought 10k shares at the end of August ~$6.50 and he sold everything @ $10.40 a month later and now thinks he’s a genius, the next Warren Buffett as he says. I don’t have the heart to tell him Warren’s an investor, not a trader.
