Since there have been a few replies, I will just write one for all. That remark of thousands was not off the cuff in an interview, but an actual press release. Could it have been an expression...possibly. But semantics aside, I will look a little deeper into those numbers.
So I think all would agree that this is not for all, just a certain portion of these patients. If you look at the Phase 1/2 trial, inclusion criteria was for people aged 50 to 75. Now do you think a large portion of the potential candidates would come from that age group? I would tend to think that a vast number of the ones having complications, would come from people 75+. Weaker, less healthy, under active, etc senior citizens.
I think this as my Mom had hip surgery a few months ago, She would fit into that category I just described and she is in her mid 80's. She never walked much at all, with arthritis and knee trouble hindering much of anything for at least the past decade. I was truly expecting an extremely lengthy recovery process. I was amazed that she was walking with a walker to the bathroom within two days. Back home soon after, with a few physio appoints to help with certain exercises. So I'm not sure what state some one would have to be in, to fit this PLX suitable category.
The inclusion criteria, also required an ASA score of 3 or below, 1 being healthiest and 6 being the worst, obviously simplified, but that's the gist of it. Again who would most likely be the ones having difficulty with recovery...the higher class group. Honestly I'm not sure what difference the treatment will make, if someone so extremely weak to begin with, falls and needs hip surgery. If someone is so frail to begin with, is a 500% gain in muscle mass going to make a difference.
That brings me to my final point, and I'm sorry if this seems callous. And maybe if am off base here due to my possible misperceptions of the U.S. health care system. I truly don't understand their system, I'm just blessed with free health care for everyone where I come from.
Would insurance companies be willing to pony up this large amount of money for the people who need this? Many of the people requiring them are very elderly. And what group of society accounts for one the biggest cost to health care providers, the elderly. Now yes hospitalization and all the things that go along with is are super expensive. Now an insurer has to foot the $50,000 bill, and have this person live several years longer costing these insurers more and more money. The morbidity rate is around 20% or 25% I think. And when healthcare is run by big business, I'm not so sure what they would do. It bothers me just to say this truly, but it is a possibility, as horrific as it sounds. We have all heard the many horror stories that come from the U.S.
For these reasons, I don't think this market is as big as others. As Melon stated the number whatever it is, will improve the bottom line. And if the cost of this treatment is anywhere near the $40 to $50 thousand range, it doesn't take much. And yes the market will be growing with the worlds aging population
So yes when Allo through out numbers, I mistakenly took them for something different, at least with my explanation. They through out vastly exaggerated numbers along with false ones, it's hard to keep them straight.
Stox, I do think other potential things related to this hip trial, will of course add significantly to the potential. Sports injuries alone would be huge IMO, and would be more widespread, as the age group would be much younger.
And I have always believed in this product and have never wavered from that. Nothing negative in any of their trials, is incredible. Now with one phase 3 on the go, and another two hopefully to come soon, it's even better. To be at a stock price that we have been at for over 7 years, rests mainly on one person, that has grown to two. I will stand by the end of year promise. Truly I hope if nothing happens this year to at least get us to $2.50 to $3, I want these two out immediately. And I'm sure many others without experience in this industry should as well. An overhaul, just like Sangamo did.
Trying to keep the outrage that people were feeling earlier alive. Don't want to hear more soon soon soon like I have for many years. Want now now now!!! Sorry for the ridiculously long post. Looking forward to hopefully hearing some more thoughts or comments. Sorry Melon, why end a topic that sparks discussion and different viewpoints. As you can tell from this post and others, I like to discuss. Wife sure doesn't like it though.
