I agree with you in principle, but only from a linear viewpoint, and only if you assume they are honestly looking out at real buy and sell blocks. The challenge is that this stuff isn't linear it's multidimensional, multifaceted.
The reality is the short contingent (whoever they are) has made sure to break the chart at almost every key inflection point over the last 2+ years. This eventually wears down retail and scares away momentum traders who trade almost entirely on technical signals.
While the final reports from the 4th quarter early next year may tell us a different story, we can determine for fact that the entire 3rd Quarter was dominated by hedge fund controlled HFT churning and burning. Because we know (unfortunately always in hindsight) that out of 43M shares traded from July to Sep that ADXS saw almost 2M shorts cover and a net loss of 1.1M Tute shares.
So net changes to Tutes and Shorts were only 7% of that total volume during 3rd Qtr. Yet between those 2 groups they control 68% of the float. That just considers the officially reported short interest, because who knows what the real number is.
So excluding them 93% of the rest of the volume was from retail? Said another way retail which controls only 32% of the float out of a total float (40+M) completely turned their shares over 3 1/2 times in 3 months? Just from retail? Anyone that believes that I have a map to King Solomons mines for sale. First offer of $1M closes the deal.
We'll see what the next reports show but we actually have facts to know that HFT has been dominating trading here for months, even years.
