Zeev's Turnips Patch-No Politics (ZEEV)

[mlsoft]

ardent jd...

You may well be correct, but that is not what I am seeing nor what my sources are telling me. I would be absolutely shocked, faint dead away type, if MU really had to put anyone on allocation for anything other than hype or as a ploy to raise prices.

Overall, chip inventories are low in some areas, but in many others, inventories are relatively high and growing. As for capacity utilization, I believe if anything excess capacity is understated, not overstated, with a lot of unused capacity idled or shut down that could be re-opened if conditions warranted. There is a very high probability that overly optimistic buildups for Christmas may lead to an absolutely dismal Q1 and Q2 for 2004 in the sector.

We shall see, but if I am correct, the chip and equipment sectors will not see any significant recovery until 2004 at the earliest - the equipment sector especially may not be until 2005 or later.

mlsoft