CryoPort Inc (CYRX)

[hyperopia]

Cold, it may have been from this Barron’s article: Gilead: Congratulations…But You Still Overpaid for Kite
https://tinyurl.com/y8sz5lcj

Cowen’s Phil Nadeau says physician checks suggest Yescarta will launch much faster than investors appreciate. He explained in detail in a note out today:

Prior to our recent Therapeutics conference we conducted a survey of 18 hematologists/oncologists from 13 clinical centers, and at the conference we hosted a panel discussion with 2 KOLs with experience administering CD19 CAR T cell therapies to patients with a range of B cell malignancies including ALL, DLBCL, FL, and MCL. The panelists and surveyed physicians believe that ZUMA-1 represented significantly better efficacy than alternative therapeutic options for these conditions. In fact, the physicians anticipate rapid adoption.
In the U.S. ~10K patients die of aggressive NHL each year, though not all of these patients are expected to be good candidates for CAR therapy...The surveyed physicians estimate 53% (~5300 patients) of relapsed/refractory patients will be good candidates for commercial CD19 CAR T cells therapy. Kite and Novartis are planning a staged roll out of commercial therapy that will begin at centers participating in clinical trials before expanding to other large medical centers that did not participate in Kite’s ZUMA-1 trial and/or Novartis’ JULIET trial. Given the capacity constraints at these hospitals, physicians anticipate 1233 aNHL patients will be treated with a commercial CD19 CAR T cell therapy in 2018. Importantly, this is nearly double investors’ expectation of 677 patients treated in 2018. In addition to the national view, we also asked physicians to describe their expectations for treatment patterns at their clinic. In 2018, the physicians expect to treat an average of 3 commercial patients/month. This is anticipated to increase to 8 commercial patients/month in 2022. Both panelists reported that their centers are currently capable of treating up to 10 patients/month inclusive of clinical trials, but did note that their centers (University of Pennsylvania and Massachusetts General Hospital) are evaluating further expansion of their cell therapy capacity.

Whether it’s 600 or 1300, or somewhere in the middle, it’s likely significant revenue for Cryoport. I think 2018 will be a good, solid year of growth for Cryoport, but I think the growth that you are taking about won’t come until 2019-2020. These are brand-new, extremely expensive treatments in limited medical centers. There are a lot of constraints and issues to be worked out before really ramping up, not the least of which is managed care. And yes, at some point they may need that much capital, but I doubt they will be looking to raise that much now, and may just be preparing for the European approvals.