SPDR S&P 500 (SPY)

[gdl]

IF this month hold up I think January of next year will be the next time frame for a possible 10 to 20% drop.

The current move up can show terminal velocity if it keeps spiking. if it does what it has in the past the slow grind down should occur next week. Staying in the trend line has been picture perfect so far.

Only impeachment or failed tax cuts will shake the stock tree.
Earnings and economic activity is boringly on par for solid gains.

The dollar should soon hit 95 if this is for real. In fact it should hit in next 5 to 10 trading days. 97 is the big test IMO.

I can't help but be amazed at the logic stated by bears. They change their reasoning as the economic conditions change instead of changing their position. Oh well, that's why so many give money to this market. unemotional betting is the hardest thing to do so I suggest you master that before any technical or fundamental strict strategy.

Trump keeps up his monotonous attacks and we now just ignore anything he says since an hour can now go by with contradictions. he is getting more unstable as the Mueller noose is tightening. Wonder what he meant by "calm before the storm" on 10/7. We just finished military exercise yesterday. I suspect trump pushes his big DICK on North Korea with a provocative military move that can LIKELY start a MAJOR confrontation. I do believe I mentioned N. Korea as most likely start of war in the very early post inauguration. Anyone thinking the odds low also saw a stock market in bear territory for years. My MACRO views have been pretty well defined now. I gave a 50% odds of nuclear conflict from day one. I upped it to 60%. I hesitantly hold that number but suspect it rises before this year is out. Trump insulted the military by pretending there was no 4 dead soldiers, when shamed blamed Obama and reluctantly make those calls. His insensitivity is astonishing. His inability to BACK DOWN and apologize is more reflective of MY decision to declare nuclear conflict as more likely than not. Psychologically he is the best candidate for creating such a devastating conflict.