Cytodyn Inc (CYDY)

[pearsby09]

Fred, I agree with everything you have said, except the last line:

It will be a long time before the company is cash flow positive - think mid 2020 at the earliest.

If CYDY does not get bought out in the next 6 months, the company either goes BK or dilutes into oblivion. Their only hope, and this has always been the case, is a BO, and sooner than later. The company positive cash flow scenario will never happen and management knows that.

As far as the prospective BP BO landscape. well, it looks very bleak:

1) Current HAART is 96% efficacious and with virtually no dropouts, in spite of AE's

2) 6 different classes of HAART

3) Already, well proven CCR5 inhibitors that share "very similar" CCR5 inhibitive MOA's, with similar pharmacodynamics and pharmacokinetics

4) BP's knowing CYDY is in a corner and has NO leveraging power for 2 years (MONO). Especially without an intervening Suitor, which I believe will be the case, even with a clinically relevant PE read out. I think it will be close on PE statistical significance at a P value < .05

5) CCR4 patients not addressed

6) There is a reason for slow enrollment. Too many other CCR5 "Proven" options, 5 other HAART class regimens and growing. The HAART regimens come from large BP and convenience is improving (once oral per month), rather than two injections per week pro 140. The mandate for 2 injections rather than accounts for it's sub therapeutic copies per ml viral suppression

Bottom line. Even if the PE's reach statistical significance, BP will allow CYDY to spoil on the vine...because they can.