Since speculation seems to be a popular topic this week, I'd like to submit a couple of thoughts for consideration.
I don't know how much it costs to produce a SecureView in quantity, but when estimating margins, etc., don't forget to burden the COGS. Production people may toss around numbers reflecting hard costs (essentially labor and materials), as that's often a good way to measure efficiency, improvements, etc. It may not include additional costs such as facilities, sales and marketing, administrative costs, etc. There may be some accounting types on the board who could offer an educated rule of thumb (if one exists), but I'd guess that if COGS are $75, the burdened cost is probably at least $100.
Another consideration when estimating revenues is that big customers (retailers, government, etc.) won't pay anywhere near retail. Margins will be driven by a number of factors, including product availability, market penetration, opportunity costs, strategic value, and countless others. I have no idea what SEVU will get for large quantities of SecureView, but I'd be surprised if it was more than $200/ea. I'd assume closer to $150, but again, there are too many factors that aren't visible to us.
Future speculation can be fun, and certainly valuable when considering revenue and profit potential for our investments, but my excitement today lies in anticipation of Q2 earnings. If SEVU had a $9M backorder in January, and we know they didn't ship anything meaningful during Q1, I'm expecting great things for Q2. If new orders are really being filled as they're placed, particularly at $299, that leads me to believe they have filled all of the $499 (highest margin) orders as well as anything "big" which may have been ordered before. Discounting for allegations of consignment or promotional sales, it still seems reasonable to expect some pretty impressive numbers for Q2. I'm hoping for $5M, perhaps. We've been told of a 20K unit production run, and if that has been completed and shipped at an average price of $300 (these should by predominantly direct sales), SecureView revenues alone would be about $6M. Personally, I think that would get the market's attention.
