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Thursday, October 19, 2017 1:33:43 PM
Risk Is Underpriced, Perhaps Considerably So
By: Doug Kass | October 19, 2017
Those threats were confidently ignored in 1987 and 2007 by the bullish cabal. After all, many had said, computers really can’t harm markets (1987) and home prices never can retreat (2007). Indeed, back then, market skeptics (like myself, Barry Ritholtz, Dr. Robert Shiller, Gary Shilling and Todd Harrison) were often laughed at publicly; they were called Cassandras, and worse.
Memories are short, and with the S&P 500 much higher many of these non-critical talking heads who dismissed the concerns of 30 years ago and 10 years ago are back self-confidently ushering in a new paradigm of uninterrupted economic growth with few accompanying market risks.
In A Flat, Networked and Interconnected World…
The only certainty is the lack of certainty, and the one thing I am certain of is that never in history have we faced so many potentially adverse political, geopolitical, economic, social and market outcomes.
From my pal, The Lindsey Group’s Peter Boockvar:
“There was also a new high in the net speculative short position in VIX futures for the week ended last Tuesday.”
Low-probability events do happen.
And risk is underpriced, perhaps materially so, in our interconnected world.
Doug Kass
https://realinvestmentadvice.com/risk-is-underpriced-perhaps-considerably-so/
• DiscoverGold
By: Doug Kass | October 19, 2017
Those threats were confidently ignored in 1987 and 2007 by the bullish cabal. After all, many had said, computers really can’t harm markets (1987) and home prices never can retreat (2007). Indeed, back then, market skeptics (like myself, Barry Ritholtz, Dr. Robert Shiller, Gary Shilling and Todd Harrison) were often laughed at publicly; they were called Cassandras, and worse.
Memories are short, and with the S&P 500 much higher many of these non-critical talking heads who dismissed the concerns of 30 years ago and 10 years ago are back self-confidently ushering in a new paradigm of uninterrupted economic growth with few accompanying market risks.
In A Flat, Networked and Interconnected World…
The only certainty is the lack of certainty, and the one thing I am certain of is that never in history have we faced so many potentially adverse political, geopolitical, economic, social and market outcomes.
From my pal, The Lindsey Group’s Peter Boockvar:
“There was also a new high in the net speculative short position in VIX futures for the week ended last Tuesday.”
Low-probability events do happen.
And risk is underpriced, perhaps materially so, in our interconnected world.
Doug Kass
https://realinvestmentadvice.com/risk-is-underpriced-perhaps-considerably-so/
• DiscoverGold
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