Castle Brands Board (ROX)

[FUNMAN]

Seems to me that without stimulus, all the forecasting and knowledge about ROX in the world won't stop the PPS slippage. The appetite for more is tough to satiate.

Just consider this though for some stimulus in 3 weeks.

If Walmart's purchases established a base during our first quarter (and their first quarter carrying the new product), adding just one more purchased 6-pack ($3.5) per store (4,500) per week (13) adds approximately $204,750 to ROX's revenues. One more purchased case adds $819,000.

Forecasting our revenue increases is complicated by more than that.

Consider the Y-over-Y bumps the prior two years. There's no commonality:

For the 3 months ending Sept 30:

2014: $13,381,704

2015: $18,536,509 (+25%)

2016: $19,627,791 (+6%)

Splitting the difference certainly doesn't seem unreasonable considering last year's revenues did not contain any Walmart (4,500) or Shoprite (330) stores ( How many shoprite stores are there ):

https://www.google.com/search?source=hp&q=how+many+shoprite+stores+are+there&oq=how+many+shopRite&gs_l=psy-ab.1.0.0l10.1230.5650.0.8162.18.17.0.0.0.0.179.1977.0j13.13.0....0...1.1.64.psy-ab..5.13.1975.0..35i39k1j0i131k1j0i20i264k1.0.HMGsSi-T1QE

So if we split the difference that's 15.5% Y-over-Y:

2017 1st fiscal 90 days ending June 30: $20,852,287

2017 2nd fiscal Forecast:

$22,670,098 (15.5% Y-over-Y) and about

9% Q-over-sequential-Q

So I may be the only one who owns ROX shares who thinks that's really good and reasonably likely.

I think it's a solid number. We'll be able to compare it to reality.

Given the improving trend, I would expect the PPS to reflect future growth, especially with the growing security of Walmart distribution.