Avid Bioservices Inc (CDMO)

[exwannabe]

CP, before going to the math I would note that one can vote a partial RED card. In practice this means little as the RED slate is "virgin" thus the will be few anti votes.

Also, they can not add SK to the list despite their clear intention to have him on the BOD. By law, this would require SK to agree.

Last, Ronin (and friends) will almost certainly vote personally for his own slate plus SK, so SK gets the 7th seat if Ronin wins.

Now, back to the math.

We understand how voting for 4 White candidates could work as you describe. But IMO it is very unlikely, and more likely just to vote in all White if it has any effect.

Try these numbers as an example (percent of votes cast):

W/o an 'unbalanced card" movement

 
 WHITE 7 non-retail : 15% 
 WHITE 7 retail     : 25% (see note) 
 WHITE 3 retail     : 5%  (there was 10% last year, but this will decrease as many would go RED) 
 RED 6 non retail   : 25% 
 RED 6 retail       : 30%

Result, RONIN 6 + SK win.

With an "unbalanced card" movement that pulls in 20%:

 
 WHITE 7 non-retail : 15% 
 WHITE 7 retail     : 25%  
 WHITE 3 retail     : 25%   
 RED 6 non retail   : 25% 
 RED 6 retail       : 10%

Result, WHITE 7 elected.

NOTE: Many will question that 25% for WHITE 7 vote. It is real because many voters are totally ignorant about the company and simply follow management instructions. And you will not pull those away.

With this initial vote distribution you would need to pull between 5-15% for your play to work. But that is kind of the sweat spot for you.

If the initial vote was closer (shift a few percent more into that WHITE-7 retail pool, it becomes more difficult to thread the needel and get your result.

BTW, there is also a huge practical effect that I have not included, it is easy to screw up the checkboxes and write in. Many people would not properly vote for a subset, thus makes it even harder for the CP strategy to work.