Great post by jrf30 this morning... Still way undervalued...
Re: trefontane Post# 62182
SOme answers for you.
"but if this trades in the $1 or more range your talking about a MC of $450 million. I keep seeing $4 for Nasdaq but I don't see this as a Billion dollar market cap company anytime soon(next 3 years) "
First off, I don't look at what prices are needed. That is irrelevant to reality. So the $4 for NASDAQ? A target for an exchange, but not something to work into backwards. Instead, I look at what the company is doing, and what is realistic in my eyes.
For this company - I see them having 50 franchises by the end of 2018. Not 400 or some made up number, but let's just go with the 50 that they seem to be in early negotiations for right now. I see 5 corporate stores. that is LOW, and might be off by up to 100%, but again, I'm not looking at the pump factor. Just what looks like they are already working on. The 5 corporate stores should bring in about $15MM in revenues, and about $3MM in net profits. I'm leaving one BIG thing off of this though. IF they self publish a new game that goes big, this could be significantly low. Amazingly low. I'm not betting on that potential though, just on what is in the works. If that comes, then the $4 NASDAQ is no longer a problem price. really. It is low. But without that, and without the stars in my eyes, just 5 corporate stores, and 50 franchises. So I see them having $15MM from the corporate stores. the 50 franchises I've reduced down to $500K in revenue per year from each, and that includes the sales of games at those stores. They really can't take too much per store away from the franchisees, as the franchisees need to make money too. the company will get some sales from the franchises, plus the POS system software, plus the game sales. Another low number in my thoughts, but I'm playing it that way. I think 1/2 a million per store, times 50 is $25MM in revenue. the gains?? Amazingly high, as there are not a lot of expenses. the franchisees just pay a net fee. Let's call it $15MM in net profit. That puts S&L at $18MM net profits for AMFE.
Next is Gro3. Much harder to gauge the revenue and income, but I am taking a few deals every 6 months, and a low net, and probably low on this too, but something somewhere will screw up so this accounts for that too. They do $12MM in revenues (Again. way low, but let's roll with that.) and earn $2MM in profit.
IK I am taking out entirely, as it will be spun off soon. It is a new stock you will own when they give it out, and that is something that shall make the investment now worth more, but I'm not adding it ot 2018 numbers.
That gives us about $20MM in NET REVENUE in 2018 calendar year. that overlaps two fiscal years, but I am fine with that. $20MM is about 4 cents a share net earnings. IF this stock trades at a PE of 60, knowing that they are growing, and 2019 should result in more franchises and more Gro3 deals, and service contracts for gro3, and more game sales, then that is realistic, and we are trading at $2.40 per share. Nope, not at $4, but a realistic price of $2.40. I look at that from the 16 cents we are at now, and say WOW. For a company WITH fundamentals, that won't be going up just on hype, that is quite the one year return. From now, near the end of 2017, to the end of 2018.
Speaking of hype. What stock do you know that trades at what it is worth at all times? None. they trade below true value, and then they trade above full value. At some point, this stock will jump up above what it is worth. Shoot, look at all the companies that have almost ZERO revenue that jump up on hype and get to higher evaluations than this one just on the hope that something will happen. Or jump to a lower value than this, but still a major jump. It happens weekly, and sometimes daily. I think this stock will catch the eye of a few pump and dumpers at some point, and go higher than it should . That is when it could go to $4 a share before it is ready. But I don't look at $4 as any target. I look at fundamentals FIRST, and THEN come up with the target. Right now, if things don't change (they could, with bigger deals than expected, a new self published game, or a new alliance not yet in the picture) i see this stock worth $2,40 in a year, and that is why based on those FUNDAMENTALS, I think we hvae a RARE one here. I know of NO other company, pink, QB, NASDAQ of big board, that based on REALISTIC fundamentals should be ten times higher in a year. It is only because of the unique timing of this stock. It is just starting its broad expansion and franchising, and we are in on it early. Most companies are still private at this point, and do an IPO at a higher price in the future. this one is public, so we get to buy now. (disclosure. I've also bought a lot of those private ones in the past. Lost on some, and had super home runs on others that came with an IPO many times my private purchase price.)
That's my fundamental analysis of the stock. NOt working for any analyst, so this is just one man's opinion, but it's how I see it. smile
Replies:
Freaking awesome post! Astute, realistic and conservative. Probably one
JuzMaintain on 10/16/2017 10:27:09 AM
Really great post.
MIKE22CA on 10/16/2017 10:28:51 AM
Awesome post jr...
Rocketstocks on 10/16/2017 10:30:13 AM
What a beautiful read to go with my
Ringrock on 10/16/2017 10:35:54 AM
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