Sunday, September 24, 2006 2:03:22 PM
Then, as you say, a certain proportion of warrant holders will convert their warrants.
I'm guessing the whole scenario will bring between 30-40 million into Cortex. I'm guessing about the same thing as the large pharma deal next year, so if the negotiations begin anew--taking 3-5 months to complete, say October till the end of Feb. with a deal announced in March.
Cortex will begin several strategies at once in this five month stretch:
1. They've hinted a number of times their goal, plan, idea(sometimes with specificity of an orphan drug CNS target)of picking up a non-ampakine compound around phase II in an orphan drug area. Say in Huntington's, ALS. Something that Cortex could run on their own. What would be needed is a 'down payment' on the 'purchase' of 'drug x' to 'company y.' I haven't the foggiest who 'they' might be.
2. IND and initiation of phase IIb for adult ADHD over eight weeks. The trial will be enrolling patients when the deal is inked. And I'm sure Cortex will deman that they--their research team--will be able to advance these results in a 'PR.' So it cannot be burried in secrecy under a large pharma's banner.
3. Sometimes in this period we will get Organon's monotherapy phase IIb results.
4. As Gfp and other point out: CX701 will move into human testing early next year as well . . . phase I human testing.
5. Expansion of the PET scan Alzheimer's trial with a few new centers--results next year with Cortex allowed to publicize them in a journal/PR/conference.
6. Bringing along a high impact into toxicology by early next year--or advancing a few such canidates to this treshold--early '07.
7. Such a plan will require monies: ADHD--7-9 million, product X buy or down payment will be 10-15 million, CX717 Alzheimer's extension 3 million and probably another 5 million in total for other costs--25 million at least.
8. Stress should be added to the issue of the form of the deal. Cortex will insist 'use-it, or lose-it clauses' to ensure there is no black hole, and probably some right to be in the loop and disclose relevent test findings as well. Otherwise, like Organon, there is sleep and lack of interest, until some milestone ir heralded.
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