Avid Bioservices Inc (CDMO)

[jakedogman1]

all deal structures and values are probably looked at on an NPV basis including upfront payments, milestones and contingent rights and cost to develop, approve and market the molecule and reflect the following:

demand for molecule among competition.... the value is directly correlated to the number of BP's in competition

obvious market size etc (combo pricing?)

motivations of both parties in the risk/reward curve as it relates to funding.... more up front equals less back end...

negotiating strength of both sides.... cash poor biotech has less power..

motivations of parties... for pphm we have a unique set of motivations with the proxy battle.... will mgmt represent shareholders or try to remain entrenched without oversight or skill sets needed at this juncture? and current mgmt could sell out cheap if they know they are on the outs and risk clawbacks...

and the skill sets of the negotiators... PPHM is outgunned vs BP...

so deals are all over the place....

my est is bavi is a mix of preclinical success with phase 3 safety data (which means nothing w/o data with intended combo) with possible signs of efficacy yet competing with who knows what? and will require a lot of capital relative to PPHM's current capital structure and that would be too dilutive for pphm at this juncture...

so is the delay in the asm related to the following:

scrambling for BOD candidates that have to step into a cat fight and they have to join a team of certified skunks.... this will require expensive go away parachutes (like the last one)... but hey, it's not their money so what the heck...

a BP deal..

scrambling for data like exosome verification

or throwing a road block and making it difficult for ronin...

or all of the above?

remember quite a few folks did not get the DS docs. Schwab had no record of the filings and they were looking into it.

so which is it?

and whatever happens in any direction, the class action attorneys will probably be out in force.... that's what they deserve for having such an unqualified self serving BOD with zero biotech experience...

curses are like chickens; they always come home to roost.... so hopefully the hen house becomes a horror house...