Keryx Biopharmaceuticals Inc fka KERX

[H2R]

SA article: "doubles the market potential for Auryxia in one fell swoop."

Analysis: This is an sNDA for Auryxia in IDA, NDD-CKD. It is already approved for IDA, DD-CKD, CKD patients dependent on dialysis, or in other words, patients with the more severe form of the disease than the NDD ones. Therefore, one would assume that the market size by patient numbers will be higher for NDD-CKD, and indeed it is. There are 1.7 million Americans with NDD-CKD compared to DD-CKD, which has about 450,000 patients. However, largely because of the additional numbers of pills required for the more severe patients, its market size in dollar terms if $2.2bn while for NDD-CKD it is $2.8bn only, not thrice the DD-CKD numbers. However, that still doubles the market potential for Auryxia in one fell swoop. Moreover, being approved in the more severe form of CKD, one would expect, assuming decent safety profile (which it is), that this will be easily approved on November 6. So, despite trading near its 52-week high, I see decent upside from current levels.

https://seekingalpha.com/article/4112650-daily-pharma-scoop-synergys-cash-position-flexions-zilretta-approval-keryx-major-catalyst