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Tuesday, October 10, 2017 8:45:47 AM
As for a buyout scenario, we need to start thinking a bit more seriously about what price level we want or need. When adding warrants to outstanding shares, we are looking at somewhere around 400M shares total? If so, a $2B buyout would get us $5/share. Is that sufficient? Certainly compared to today's PPS levels, it sounds outstanding, but does that achieve our individual financial goals regarding this stock? Were we hoping for two to four times that much in the next 5 years or so? Or are we still bitter enough about the company's history that we would take $2 just to be done with the whole thing?
We may want to discuss this a bit here on the board to get a feel for where everyone stands, because if an offer comes around, I assume shareholders get to vote on it. We each need to think about how much we would be willing to accept for a Yes vote on a buyout. I'm closer to $10/share, or $4B before I would jump on it that quickly. We will want to consider timing with regard to milestones and project timelines - how close are we to FDA filing or approval by then? Have there been any hiccups which represent risk, or has it been smooth sailing with the new team so the perception of risk is minimal? For some folks, who the buyer is might affect their decision as well (I'm just gonna be a "Show me the money" guy if it happens; I don't care who is paying as long as they pay enough).
The article pointed out that there is a shortage of good target companies in med tech right now, so one offer could easily be the first of a bidding war, given the impact SPORT is expected to have on the robotic surgery marketplace. Just another thing to keep in mind. We might not want to jump too quickly on the first offer; they need to give other potential buyers time to formulate a competing offer if they want.
Maybe it's premature, or maybe now is a good time to start thinking about this, because when it hits, it will be mostly out of the blue. With the propensity for information to be leaked with this stock (prices always spike just before good news), any time we see a healthy jump for no apparent reason means something is coming, and any time we get the "random" spike, it could be a buyout offer causing it.
I think it might be time to start the dialog amongst ourselves to see where we stand as a group, and maybe be able to leverage our collective voting power to better meet everyone's long term objectives with this investment. I think we are in a good position for some strong bargaining if it is going to happen. And if it doesn't happen, we are still in a great place and moving in the right direction.
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