Imclonian,
If the data from Rodman is correct and your analysis is correct 3rd quarter could be yet another record for erbitux sales.
Does anyone remember the market penetration for H & N which was disclosed in the 1Q conference call. According to Rodman there is now for H & N a 40% 3 month moving average market penetration.
I think it was just about 17% during the first quarter.
If we extrapolate these numbers H & N is huge and colon is growing.
A little math yields these results even more bullish than imclonian's calculations.
1st quarter erby sales other than colon were 32%. If that 32% represents H & N then there is over a 100% rise in H & N revenue from the 1st quarter.(40% market penetration vs. 17% = >130%) on that 32%.
Weigh that as 1/3 and add the 16% month over month increase then there should be a substantial increase in August of Erby sales substantially in excess of the 61.2 million imclonian calculated, maybe approaching 70 million.
THIS NEWS SHOWS THAT ERBY IS GROWING EVEN WITHOUT THE PROBABLE LABEL EXPANSION COMING WITHIN A FEW QUARTERS. IT ALSO SHOWS THAT COMBO % WILL LESSEN FOR TOTAL ERBY SALES DUE TO 1ST LINE H & N INCREASING (less royatlty). BAD NEWS IS ALMOST FINISHED. GOOD NEWS AHEAD. IMHO.
please criticize my logic here, thanks.
Rodman's king's analysis:
ImClone’s (IMCL, Market Outperform) Erbitux continues to grow in head & neck cancer with a record high of over 40% 3MMA market share, with the most significant contribution coming from first-line where it grew month-over month by over 42% and has nearly 32% 3MMA market share. Erbitux has also shown growth in colorectal cancer where it grew month-over-month by over 16% with very strong contributions from second-line where it more than doubled month-over-month
