My guesstimate on expected subs acquired numbers. Be aware I'm usually wrong, so just completely ignore my non-sense here. Got it?
Method:
1. Use website analytics.
2. Calculate daily historic numbers, using a ratio of known total (380K subs acquired for a 1 month period), in correlation with website analytics.
3. Use this to determine on average subs acquired during the period between Sept 15th - Oct 14th = 156.7K.
4. Calculate expected subs acquired by Oct 14th = 552K subs +/- X
5. Use box office results from the past 11 years (I wanted to do 10, but since I used 11, I continued to use 11 to be consistent) to calculate how many peeps go to the movies BY month. We have:
Box Office Results (average BY month the past 11 years):
Jan = 410 M
Feb = 652 M
Mar = 908 M
Apr = 594 M
May = 1.14 B
June = 1.22 B
July = 1.17 B
Aug = 648 M
Sept = 549 M
Oct = 615 M
Nov = 1.17 B
Dec = 1.33 B
6. Use ratio from estimated/calculated (Sept 15 - Oct 14) subs acquired vs box office results.
7. Use this to calculate potential subs acquired PER / BY month.
8. Total up, and we get = 2.97 million acquired subs per 12 month rolling period.
HMNY expects "at least" 2.5 million subs acquired in the next 12 months. My 2.97 million estimate is within that range of "at least". The numbers, my friends, do not lie.
How you guys think I calculated AMD Q2 earnings better than 18+ "professional analysts"? I'm sure I'm completely wrong here, so ignore my babble.
My point is to not expect a billion subs by next month or you will be sorely disappointed. I expect if they report numbers in the middle of Oct that it'll be around 550K subs total. I've seen some ridiculous numbers thrown around here, some I'm sure people just pulled out from where the sun don't shine.
Bye Bye
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The above reposted from the Yahoo boards by some weirdo named BobDole (aka me)
