It's human nature to look for patterns. I've been in this stock for a while, so I also felt the pain of when we hit 5.00 and then went all the way back down to 2.50 (or whatever it was). Then we ran up again, then back down to 2.30. It is absolutely understandable why someone at this point would say to themselves that we've seen this before, it'll drift back downwards just like it did so many times in the past, I'm going to avoid it and buy back in at the low. The problem is that 1) we don't know if it'll actually drift down again, and 2) we have no idea what that "low" will be. Will it be 2.80, 2.50, 2.20, or 1.50? We have no idea. Not only do you have to be right that it'll drift downwards starting tomorrow, you have to be right about when it'll turn back upwards. The chances of you being correct on one side is 50%, which means the chances of you being correct on both sides is 25%, which translates into the odds being stacked against you. (This is the same concept of why a parlay or a reverse bet in sportsbetting is considered a "sucker" bet). It's hard enough to be correct once, but to be correct twice in a row is remarkable.
If you view this stock as a true $60.00 stock, then all these fluctuations between 2.00 - 5.00 just don't mean much. I have 70,000 dollars invested in this stock and I'm very willing to lose every single dollar. There's no way I'd risk missing the "pop" that I expect to happen by trading in and out. Everything that has happened in the last 9 months or so is just noise. I honestly don't even care that much if it moves up and down between here and 2.50. Why would I if I expect the final value 3-24 months from now to be 50-60 dollars? The only thing I care about is when we are in the 50.00 dollar range and I'm wondering what kind of house I'm going to buy. (or how losing 70 thousand dollars sucked, but we don't have to bring that up now).
